Reuters notes that these launches occur 'in the midst of the Iran war and while discussions with the United States and South Korea are being mentioned' (source: Reuters). The timing is not coincidental.
Pyongyang's Calculation
The historical precedent is the series of launches in 2017-2018, when North Korea had intensified its ballistic tests during a period of heightened tensions between Washington and Pyongyang (source: Reuters, April 18, 2026). The difference in 2026: U.S. military and diplomatic attention is absorbed by Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. The Tomahawk stockpile is down by a quarter. The U.S. Navy is deployed in the Gulf, not in the Sea of Japan.
Pyongyang is simultaneously testing two things: its ballistic capabilities (the Hwasongpho-11 Ra are tactical missiles with short ranges, but the frequency of launches is unprecedented) and Washington's ability to maintain credible pressure on two theaters. If the launches continue without a US reaction beyond diplomatic condemnation, a precedent is set: the Iran war offers North Korea a strategic window of opportunity.
Regional Context
On April 22, Japan voted to lift the ban on lethal arms exports – a direct response to the North Korean threat and uncertainty over US security guarantees (see our analysis). The magnitude 7.7 earthquake on April 21 (see our analysis) reminded the country of its simultaneous vulnerability to natural disasters and ballistic threats.
South Korea, which is monitoring the launches with its THAAD and Aegis radars, has not reinforced its troops in the north. Seoul appears to be betting on diplomacy rather than confrontation. But if Pyongyang moves from tactical missiles with 140 km ranges to intercontinental ballistic missiles (the Hwasong-17 and Hwasong-18 tested in 2023-2024), the calculation changes completely.