Exhaustion of resources
In 56 days of war against Iran, the United States fired approximately 1,100 Tomahawk missiles (see our analysis). The CSIS estimated the pre-conflict stock to be around 4,000 units. At $2.4 million per unit, the bill for this type of ammunition alone exceeds $2.6 billion. The production rate of Raytheon (approximately 400 per year) means that replacement will take at least three years.
This fact is documented by Japanese media (Nikkei), South Korean media (Korea Times), German media (Der Spiegel), and British media (Financial Times). It is absent from American mainstream coverage. The constraint is, however, operational: if Washington must maintain pressure on Iran simultaneously and deterrence in the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula, the Tomahawk stock becomes a limiting factor.
Defense Budget of $1.5 Trillion Passes in April
The defense budget of $1.5 trillion, passed in April, includes funding for replenishment (see our analysis). However, the money does not turn into missiles overnight: Raytheon's production cycle takes 18 to 24 months.
The European Fracture
Three simultaneous cracks:
1. Spain refuses to participate in the war effort and closes its airspace. The Pentagon threatens to suspend it from NATO (see our analysis). Madrid invokes Article 5 (collective defense) to argue that the attack on Iran is not an operation of the Alliance. The precedent is heavy: if a NATO member can be "suspended" for refusing a non-Article 5 war, the Washington Treaty loses its legal coherence.
