From Kerosene to GDP: Energy Crisis Enters Structural Phase -- Lufthansa, French Subsidies, and European Emergency Plan
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At Frankfurt Airport on April 23, screens began showing what the numbers had been indicating for weeks: dozens of canceled flights.
At Frankfurt Airport on April 23, screens began displaying what the numbers had been signaling for weeks: dozens of canceled flights, red marks on summer destinations. Lufthansa announced the cancellation of 20,000 flights for the summer of 2026 ([see our analysis](/fr/topics/kerosene-crisis-lufthansa-20000-flights-europe-summer-20260423)). It is the first European airline to cut at this scale – approximately 8% of its summer schedule.
The Mechanism of Shortage
Jet A-1 kerosene is a medium distillate of crude oil, in the same range as diesel. When Brent exceeds $120 per barrel, kerosene follows with a multiplier: the price of Jet A-1 in Europe reached $1,050 per ton in W17 according to Platts, against $780 per ton at the beginning of March before the conflict began. But the price is not the only problem. It's the physical availability.
European refineries depend on crude oil from the Middle East and Russia. Sanctions against Russia (2022) redirected supplies to American, Norwegian, and African crude oil. The closure of Ormuz (March 2026) cut off part of the Gulf crude oil. The result: refineries are operating at reduced capacity due to a lack of adapted raw materials. Refining margins (crack spreads) have exploded – kerosene is the most pressured product as refiners prioritize diesel, which is more profitable and in greater demand by critical sectors (freight transport, agriculture).
France has announced a kerosene subsidy mechanism for Air France and French-based companies - a measure estimated at 800 million EUR over six months. Germany did not follow suit. The EU has activated a sectoral energy emergency plan for air transport - the first time such a mechanism has been triggered since the 1973 oil shock.
Iran Maintains Pressure
On the same day, April 23, Iran seized two commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz (see our analysis). The seizures took place while a naval ceasefire was supposed to be in effect. Trump lost his Navy Secretary on the same day - a resignation that American media frame as a disagreement over conflict management, and Iranian media (Press TV) present as evidence of command dysfunction.
For markets, the seizure had the expected effect: Brent rose from $117 to $124 in one session. However, the week as a whole showed stabilization - the first since W15. Brent oscillated between $117 and $124, compared to volatility of $109-$131 in W15. Markets are starting to integrate the crisis as a new normal.
W16 to W17 Evolution
In W16, the energy crisis was framed as a price shock. In W17, it became an infrastructure issue: it's no longer just the cost of kerosene that's a problem, but its physical availability at European airports. France subsidizes, Germany cuts off, the EU activates a 1973 plan – three divergent national responses to a continental problem.
Impact by country
- Germany: Lufthansa accounts for 34% of German air traffic. The cancellation of 20,000 flights affects around 3 million passengers. The German tourism sector (170 billion EUR/year in tourist spending abroad, according to Destatis) will be the first to be affected.
- France: An 800 million EUR subsidy protects Air France but not low-cost airlines (easyJet, Ryanair) whose French bases employ around 8,000 people. Regional airports (Nice, Marseille, Lyon) depend on low-cost traffic for 60-70% of their business.
- Philippines: Three million additional poor people since the start of the conflict, according to the Asian Development Bank. Kerosene also powers generators in provinces without access to the grid – around 5% of the population.
- Japan: The 7.7 magnitude earthquake on April 21 (see our analysis) temporarily cut off refineries in Niigata. The double blow – seismic and energy-related – tests Japan's reserves at a time when the country has just lifted its ban on arms exports.
- Kenya, South Africa, Nigeria: African air hubs (Nairobi's JKIA, Johannesburg's OR Tambo, Lagos) rely on European airlines for intercontinental connections. Kenya Airways operates in code-share with KLM. The cancellation of Lufthansa flights has a ripple effect on African connections – an impact that African media are not covering this week.
CriticalWarningAffectedNeutral
1
Lufthansa Cuts 20,000 Flights for Summer 2026 -- First Major European Carrier to Make Deep Cuts
2
France Launches Kerosene Subsidy Mechanism (€800 million over 6 months)
3
EU Activates Sectoral Energy Emergency Plan -- First Time Since 1973 for Air Transport
4
Brent Oil Price Stabilizes Between $117 and $124 -- First Stabilization Since Blockade
5
Iran Seizes Two Ships at Strait of Hormuz on April 23 -- Ceasefire Fails to Hold at Sea
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