JAPAN PERSPECTIVE

Tokyo, June 20, 2026. For Japan, a major hydrocarbon importer, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz represents an immediately concrete fact: tankers are again circulating through the maritime corridor that carries roughly one-fifth of global petroleum supply. Crude oil prices have fallen to their lowest levels since the conflict erupted on February 28, signaling that markets anticipate a gradual return of Iranian exports to normal levels in the coming months, according to analysts cited by Japan Today.

Yet stabilization remains precarious. The interim agreement signed by Donald Trump leaves fundamental questions unresolved: the status of Iran's nuclear program must be settled within 60 days, a timeline that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei immediately characterized as difficult to meet. "If the American side wants to be too demanding, we will not accept it," he warned in a written message. U.S. Vice President JD Vance, who will lead Washington's delegation in upcoming negotiations, has also announced that the United States will seek to limit Tehran's long-range missiles — an additional dossier within an already heavy negotiation.

On the American domestic front, the agreement stirs turbulence. Multiple Republican senators have publicly condemned the memorandum of understanding, with one calling it the "worst blunder in foreign policy in decades." Criticisms target the release of frozen Iranian assets, the creation of a 300-billion-dollar reconstruction fund, and the loosening of sanctions. This internal discord weakens American credibility in the eyes of Tehran and regional partners.

The multilateral dimension also commands Tokyo's attention. At the G7 summit in France, Trump indicated openness to a multinational naval mission to secure traffic in the Strait of Hormuz — a proposal that directly interests Japan, whose navy already participates in regional surveillance operations. More troubling, however, is the resurgence of talk of a U.S.-China G2, which fuels apprehension in Tokyo. Following Trump's trip to Beijing to meet Xi Jinping a month ago, the prospect that Washington and Beijing manage global affairs together at the expense of Asian allies rekindles structural fears, reports Kyodo News. Nations across the region, more exposed to China's growing influence, worry about being sidelined in strategic decisions.

Israel, which continues its bombardments in Lebanon despite the accord, adds another layer of uncertainty for Japanese observers. The durability of the deal depends partly on Washington's capacity to influence Tel Aviv — an equation whose outcome remains open.