IRAN PERSPECTIVE

Tehran, June 15, 2026. Iran navigates the peace agreement with the United States amid expressions of satisfaction tempered by institutional restraint. After Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced on Sunday that both parties had "reached a peace agreement," Iran's Supreme National Security Council officially confirmed on Monday morning the conclusion of a memorandum of understanding, while clarifying that formal signature would occur on Friday, June 19 in Switzerland.

On the Iranian side, official discourse emphasizes what is presented as a historic breakthrough. According to an audio recording detailing fourteen points of the draft agreement, negotiator Mohammadi underscored that "for the first time in history, the Islamic Republic of Iran has compelled the United States to provide guarantees on behalf of Israel." He added: "Until now, the Americans had never accepted such an arrangement. The long-standing joint strategy of the United States and Israel was for Washington to sign agreements while Israel remained outside, thereby preserving its freedom of action. We did not allow that in this text."

The agreement stipulates an immediate ceasefire across all fronts, including Lebanon, with an American commitment to launch no new military operations. Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the draft text specifies full reopening within thirty days according to modalities agreed between the parties. Mohammadi emphasized that navigation rights within the strait belong exclusively to Iran and Oman, and that "this arrangement is already in place and will remain unchanged under any future agreement."

Oil markets reacted immediately: Brent crude fell USD 4.08, or 4.7 percent, to USD 83.25 per barrel, while U.S. WTI dropped USD 4.35 (negative 5.1 percent) to USD 80.53—their lowest levels since March 10. Khabar Online reports that analysts attribute this correction to the removal of a geopolitical risk premium that had accumulated during over three months of restrictions on the strait, through which approximately one-fifth of global trade in oil and liquefied natural gas transits.

Behind the institutional messaging, substantive uncertainties persist. Iran International reports that circles close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards had not yet approved the preliminary agreement as of late last week, which the Wall Street Journal describes as "a potentially significant obstacle." Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi himself indicated that the text "is not yet finalized and could still change," stressing that remote signature would remain possible if negotiations conclude successfully.

Former U.S. diplomat Charles Dunne, contacted by Iran International, offers a measured assessment: "Many in the West are mistaken about what sanctions, military strikes, and diplomatic isolation can accomplish against Tehran." He warns that the Trump administration's approach underestimates the regime's resilience, which has "repeatedly demonstrated its capacity to absorb far greater pressures."

Lebanon is presented as the first test of the nascent agreement, with experts assessing that implementation of the ceasefire on that front will constitute a critical indicator of the memorandum's viability before the Geneva ceremony.