FRANCE PERSPECTIVE

Paris, June 23, 2026. The tenth anniversary of the Brexit referendum coincides with a symbolically weighted event: the resignation of Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who had made the reset with Brussels central to his foreign policy doctrine. For French media outlets, this convergence encapsulates the broader British paradox: a decade spent absorbing the fallout from the divorce, coupled with a persistent inability to genuinely close that chapter.

Economically, the verdict appears definitive. Economists at Stanford's Institute for Policy Economics estimate that exit from the single market and customs union has reduced British GDP by at least 6 percentage points. Jonathan Portes, professor at King's College London, places the range at up to 8 percent and stresses that a clear consensus now exists among economists that Brexit has inflicted significant damage. In fiscal terms, the annual shortfall is estimated between 65 and 90 billion pounds sterling—funds that should have flowed to the National Health Service and public services.

Trade flows between the UK and the EU have contracted 15 percent despite a 13 percent pound sterling devaluation, which theoretically should have boosted British exports. Trade agreements concluded since 2020 with third countries have not offset these losses: the accord with Australia would represent, according to projections, only 0.06 to 0.10 percent of British GDP. Promises from the Leave campaign regarding fisheries control, managed immigration, and the promised 350 million pounds weekly for the NHS previously directed to Brussels have largely proven illusory.

British public opinion shifted decisively. Nearly six in ten Britons—57 percent by YouGov's aggregated data—now believe Brexit was a mistake. Fifty-five percent express support for returning to the EU provided Britain regains the opt-outs secured by David Cameron. Short-term reversal remains judged unrealistic on both sides of the Channel.

What French media outlets scrutinize closely is the dynamic of rapprochement that nonetheless unfolded. RFI emphasizes that the term realignment has gained traction in official discourse in both London and Brussels. Ursula von der Leyen stated in February at the Munich Security Conference: We are more closely bound together than ever, a decade after Brexit. Yet concrete results remain limited, and Starmer's resignation undermines the diplomatic momentum initiated since July 2024.

For the Jacques Delors Institute—whose program director for Trade and Economic Security, Elvire Fabry, was featured on BFM Business this Tuesday—the political instability that witnessed six prime ministers in ten years remains inseparable from Brexit itself. The 2016 vote, decided by 51.89 percent, durably fractured British society along generational, geographic, and social lines that neither Labour nor the Conservatives managed to heal.