SPAIN PERSPECTIVE

Madrid, June 20, 2026. Spain is facing this week its first official heat wave of summer 2026, and projections from AEMET, the national weather agency, leave little room for doubt: the episode is shaping up to be "persistent," with "extremely high" values maintained across much of the week, according to spokesman Rubén del Campo. The most severe peaks are expected in the Guadalquivir and Guadiana valleys, where temperatures could locally approach 44°C. In Loja, in the province of Granada, the thermometer should reach 42°C as early as Sunday, with yellow alerts activated throughout the Genil basin.

The most concerning aspect of this episode is not solely its daytime intensity but the lack of nighttime relief. AEMET is forecasting tropical nights and even extremely hot nights throughout southern Spain and extending into the dense urban zones of Madrid, where the urban heat island effect compounds already elevated temperatures. Overnight minimums are not expected to drop below 25°C in these areas, depriving residents of the essential thermal recovery needed.

The General Traffic Directorate (DGT) has issued warnings to drivers, reminding them that extreme heat affects concentration, increases fatigue, and makes driving significantly more dangerous on long journeys—a warning that is particularly relevant as this weekend coincides with the start of summer travel for millions of Spaniards.

This episode occurs within a documented climate context. The year 2025 ranked as the third warmest year since records began in 1961, with an average annual temperature of 15.1°C—1.1°C above the normal range for the 1991-2020 reference period. "The four years with the highest average temperatures in Spain in the entire series are the four most recent years," Rubén del Campo told the press. Summer 2025 was moreover the hottest summer ever recorded in the country, contributing to devastating wildfires across multiple regions.

Meteorologists also highlight the risk of a potential "Super El Niño" that could intensify extremes throughout the season. AEMET estimates that the most likely scenario is that summer 2026 will, once again, be warmer than normal across the entire territory. Scientists emphasize that human-caused climate change amplifies and extends these episodes, making them more frequent and more intense. Spain, described as a "frontline zone" for climate impacts, thus concentrates the dynamics that are expressed at the continental scale, with intensity exceeding the average for Europe.