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VIETNAM PERSPECTIVE
THE OIL SHOCK HITS ASIA: RATIONING, CURFEWS, AND FREE PUBLIC TRANSPORT
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DOMINANT ANGLE
Vietnamese growth stalled by Middle Eastern oil dependence
ANALYSIS
VnExpress reports Vietnam's Q1 growth slowed: 7.83% versus 8.46% the previous quarter, directly tied to rising energy costs. Consumer prices rose 4.65% in March, driven by a 10.81% surge in transport costs. The 2026 growth target of at least 10% is now 'under pressure' as Vietnam imports over 80% of its crude oil from the Middle East. NSO Director Nguyen Thi Huong admits 'the socio-economic situation continues to face obstacles.' Vietnamese airlines are scaling back operations and the government subsidizes fuel prices. A second article notes Chinese airlines and Cathay Pacific are raising fuel surcharges. Vietnam, which built its growth on export manufacturing and global supply chains, is doubly penalized: production costs rise and transport costs explode.
KEY POINTS
- Growth slowed to 7.83% vs 8.46% -- the 10% target is compromised
- Transport costs surged 10.81% in March due to oil
- Vietnam imports 80% of crude from the Middle East -- near-total dependence
COGNITIVE BIASES IDENTIFIED
Bamboo diplomacy: Vietnam criticizes neither the US nor Iran, just manages consequences
Untouchable Communist Party: crisis management is not questioned
Dominant economic prism: growth matters more than population welfare
SOURCES (2)
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