INDIA PERSPECTIVE

New Delhi searches for a crack in the wall. While most Asian countries passively endure the Strait of Hormuz blockade, India scans maritime data for reassuring signals. A Wall Street firm claims the strait is not completely closed and ships continue to pass — information the Indian press picks up with a mix of hope and skepticism. For India, which imports 85% of its oil with a significant portion transiting Hormuz, each passing ship is a reprieve. Physical crude at $150 a barrel represents an unsustainable bill for an economy of 1.4 billion where liquefied petroleum gas is the cooking fuel for hundreds of millions of households. Indian manufacturing activity is at its lowest in four years, directly dragged down by energy costs. India's non-alignment allows Delhi to buy Russian oil at discounted prices through ruble-rupee payment mechanisms, but volumes do not compensate for lost Hormuz flows. India reads this crisis with the anxiety of a country knowing it is one Iranian decision away from catastrophe. The difference between a strait 'not completely closed' and an open strait is the difference between surviving and thriving — and India is stuck on the wrong side of that line.