INDIA PERSPECTIVE

New Delhi is looking for cracks in the wall. While most Asian countries passively endure the Hormuz blockade, India scans maritime data for reassuring signals. A Wall Street firm claims the strait isn't fully closed and ships are still getting through -- information Indian media picks up with a mix of hope and skepticism. For India, which imports 85% of its oil with a significant share transiting through Hormuz, every ship that passes is a reprieve. Physical oil at $150 a barrel represents an unsustainable bill for an economy of 1.4 billion people where LPG is the cooking fuel for hundreds of millions of households. Indian manufacturing activity is at a four-year low, directly weighed down by energy costs. India's non-alignment allows Delhi to buy Russian oil at discounted prices through rupee-payment mechanisms, but volumes don't compensate for the Hormuz loss. India reads this crisis with the anxiety of a country that knows it's one Iranian decision away from catastrophe. The difference between a strait that's 'not fully shut' and one that's open is the difference between surviving and thriving -- and India is stuck on the wrong side of that line.