CHINA PERSPECTIVE

Beijing reads the Beirut strike through its dominant strategic interest: the stability of Persian Gulf oil flows. China imports roughly 70% of its oil via the Strait of Hormuz — and the Iran-US war has reduced traffic from 140 ships per day to 7. Any weakening of the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, which was a condition Iran set in its Washington negotiations, delays Hormuz's reopening and keeps China's economy under energy pressure. South China Morning Post recalls that the April 17 Lebanon-Israel ceasefire 'forms the foundation of the broader Iran-US war truce.' The May 6 Beirut strike came as Trump declared a 'very good chance' of a deal — and markets reacted positively (Brent -7.8%, S&P 500 +1.5%, Seoul +6.5%). Beijing observes that diplomatic optimism and military reality remain profoundly disconnected. China's preferred position holds: a beneficiary observer of American fractures, Bejing can present its non-interference model as more coherent every time the US fails to control its allies.