TURKEY PERSPECTIVE

Ankara, May 18, 2026. During the night of May 17-18, Ukraine launched the largest drone offensive of the entire war, striking multiple Russian regions including the Moscow area simultaneously. Local Russian authorities confirmed at least four deaths: a woman killed in Khimki on the northwestern outskirts of the capital, two men in the village of Pogorelki ten kilometers from Moscow's center, and a fourth in the Belgorod region. In Moscow itself, twelve people were wounded, primarily around the city's oil refinery.

Russian air defense claimed to have destroyed 556 drones in a single night according to the Russian Defense Ministry, then over 1,000 in twenty-four hours. The country's largest airport, Sheremetyevo, reported debris on its tarmac but no significant material damage. From the Ukrainian side, Russia responded with 287 drones, of which 279 were destroyed or neutralized according to the Ukrainian air force. Eight civilians were wounded in the Dnipropetrovsk and Kryvyi Rih regions.

Turkish media, notably through the Daily Sabah, presents these events in their factual military dimension, highlighting the unprecedented nature of the operation in four years of conflict. This coverage approach reflects the position of balance Ankara has maintained since the war began: refusal to join Western sanctions against Moscow, delivery of Bayraktar drones to Kyiv, and maintenance of diplomatic channels with both capitals.

For Turkey, this escalation occurs in a delicate context. Ankara has positioned itself on several occasions as a facilitator of negotiations, notably hosting talks in March 2022. Any intensification of combat—whether a Ukrainian strike of unprecedented scale on Russian soil or Russian retaliation on Ukrainian cities—makes it more difficult to create the conditions necessary for a ceasefire. Turkish economic interests are also at stake: commercial exchanges with Russia and Ukraine represent considerable flows, and the Black Sea remains a strategic corridor for grain exports.

The question of proportionality and escalation commands particular attention in Ankara. The symbolic crossing of the Moscow region by Ukrainian drones—even in limited numbers—shifts the perception of the balance of power and could lead Moscow to harden its own strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Turkey, which imports a significant share of its energy via pipelines crossing through both belligerent nations, cannot remain indifferent to these dynamics.