From Spain closing its airspace to US aircraft to Italy refusing its bases, the Atlantic alliance is cracking in real time. This dossier tracks the progressive rebellion of European allies against American foreign policy.
Click a flag to see blind spots
The fracture between Washington and its European allies deepens week by week. Spain closed its bases and airspace to American aircraft linked to operations against Iran. Italy followed by refusing the Sigonella base, while Germany debates the legality of using Ramstein. Trump responded by calling NATO a "paper tiger" and raising the prospect of a US withdrawal from the alliance. The UK is calling for autonomous European defense, while Canada has finally reached the 2% GDP threshold for military spending. For the first time since NATO's creation, the question is no longer whether the alliance will hold, but in what form.
Updated on April 6, 2026
Refusal to participate in an offensive war while reaffirming NATO commitment — legally solid but geopolitically risky
The NATO crisis validates their view of Western alliances as fragile and conditional
Dependent on the American security umbrella but unable to criticize Trump without jeopardizing their own security
Severity of the threat
European media oscillate between downplaying (a recurring phenomenon) and alarm (Article 42.7 protocols), while Russia and China see validation of their long-standing analyses.
The legitimacy of the American demand
The U.S. considers allied support 'automatic.' Europe invokes the offensive/defensive war distinction. Turkey and India observe while calculating.
Implications for the Indo-Pacific
China sees confirmation that NATO would not follow the U.S. on Taiwan. Australia fears AUKUS collapse. South Korea focuses solely on oil.
Trump's threat against NATO comes on day 33 of the Iran war, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggers a global energy crisis and European allies have systematically refused to open their bases or airspace to American operations. NATO's Article 5 — the collective defense clause — was never designed for offensive wars, giving Europeans solid legal ground for their refusal. The coincidence with Europe's attempt to revive Article 42.7 of the EU Treaty suggests that Europe is preparing, at least behind the scenes, for a post-American world.