CANADA PERSPECTIVE

OPEC+ approved on Sunday a modest production hike for June, the third consecutive monthly increase: seven member countries will raise output targets by 188,000 barrels per day. This decision now excludes the UAE, which left the group on May 1.

As the Globe and Mail explains, this hike will remain 'largely on paper' as long as the Iran war continues disrupting Gulf supplies. 'OPEC+ is sending a two-layer message: continuity despite the UAE's exit, and control despite limited physical impact,' says Rystad analyst Jorge Leon. 'This is less about adding barrels and more about signaling that OPEC+ still calls the shots.'

Canada is also tracking the OFAC warning to shipping companies paying Iranian transit fees. Canadian companies with subsidiaries active in Gulf trade must navigate between US sanctions and pressure from Asian clients demanding deliveries.