INDONESIA PERSPECTIVE

Jakarta, June 21, 2026. When Iran announced the second closure of the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks, Jakarta's response was immediate and distinctly pragmatic. In the presidential complex corridors, journalists abandoned routine financial questions to press economic ministers on a single concern: would fuel prices climb higher?

Coordinating Minister of Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto addressed the press on June 18 with a clear statement. He confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz reopening would weigh "heavily" on upcoming price adjustments for non-subsidized fuels, especially Pertamax, the brand preferred by Indonesia's middle class. Yet he quickly tempered expectations: "With the Strait of Hormuz reopening, we will see new price adjustments," he said, suggesting the government remains in a wait-and-see posture. The deal's effects would not reach local gas stations immediately.

This caution contrasted sharply with the optimism shown by Rosan Roeslani, Investment Minister and head of Danantara. He warmly welcomed the memorandum of understanding signed remotely by Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, suggesting it could "stabilize and accelerate Indonesian economic growth." "We must be optimistic that our economy will advance, especially with this agreement," Roeslani stated.

But the new Strait closure announced on June 20 by Iran's military command Khatam Al Anbiya—in response to continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon—reignited economic concerns. According to CNN Indonesia, the Iranian statement noted: "If aggression continues, additional measures will be taken to compel the adversary to respect its obligations." Seven civilians died in an Israeli strike on the Lebanese village of Qannarit, undermining a ceasefire announced the previous day.

The global context CNN Indonesia highlighted is striking: before the conflict, approximately one-fifth of global oil consumption transited through Hormuz. Trump himself warned at the G7 in Paris that "world oil reserves would be depleted in four weeks" without a deal. The International Energy Agency had separately cautioned that demand would exceed supply this year, with stockpiles sufficient only for several weeks.

For Indonesia, an oil-importing nation whose middle class had already endured months of rising energy costs, this volatility carries particular weight. The Prabowo administration had been exploring ways to reduce energy import dependence. The uncertainty around Hormuz makes that ambition more urgent than ever.