POLAND PERSPECTIVE

Warsaw, June 21, 2026. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has immediately triggered Polish concerns over surging fuel prices at the pump. wPolityce headlines bluntly: "Troubling news from the Middle East! Will gas prices fall?", capturing in a few words the chief worry of a public sensitive to energy costs. The IRGC announced the Strait of Hormuz was now "closed to all vessels", citing Israel's breach of the ceasefire in Lebanon, a preliminary 14-point accord signed earlier in the week between Washington and Tehran. Radio RMF24 reports that despite a new ceasefire agreed Friday between Israel and Hezbollah, Lebanese civil defense recorded sixteen deaths Saturday from Israeli strikes, with Israel saying it was responding to Hezbollah attacks. Against this backdrop, US Vice President J.D. Vance, questioned on Fox News, sounded skeptical: "We see no evidence that Iranians are still closing the Strait of Hormuz." He noted that more than 16 million barrels of oil had been exported since the preliminary accord was concluded. Meanwhile, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were in Switzerland working on the "technical aspects" of the matter. Foreign Affairs analysis, relayed by wPolityce, draws a stark conclusion: while Trump ended the fighting, Iran emerges "intact, emboldened and armed with a new leverage point: control of the Strait of Hormuz". Secretary of State Marco Rubio called this lever an Iranian "economic nuclear weapon". Iran's chief negotiator, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf, warned that "the Strait of Hormuz will never return to its previous state" and that tolls would be imposed on commercial shipping. Trump has defended the accord against critics, arguing that extending bombardment "could have triggered a global depression". He acknowledged privately, according to Axios as cited by RMF24, that global oil reserves were beginning to tighten and that prolonged closure of the Strait would represent a major shock to energy markets. Polish media underscores that the 60-day accord guarantees free and unobstructed passage for commercial vessels, yet the long-term outcome of this power struggle remains highly uncertain and subject to further escalation or diplomatic breakthrough.