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Far from diplomatic circles, the war is unfolding on local maps: in Abala, Afar, celebratory gunfire accompanied the capture of the town by Tigrayan forces and their Afar allies, while in Woldiya, Amhara, a road axis to Addis Ababa has been encircled, as Washington and Brussels raise their diplomatic tone, four years after the Pretoria agreement.
Military balances remain unverifiable on the ground: the Ethiopian army claims 272 Tigray fighters were killed, without possible independent confirmation.
In Afar, the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) and the allied Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front have taken the town of Abala, which was previously held by forces close to the federal army, reports RFI. According to a humanitarian source cited by the radio's correspondent in Addis Ababa, celebratory gunfire marked the capture of the town, where checkpoints were later set up.
In Amhara, the key town of Woldiya has been under siege since Wednesday, according to RFI and The Guardian. This road axis is one of the few routes connecting the region to Addis Ababa.
Also in Amhara, the Fano militia is participating in the fighting alongside the TPLF, reports Le Monde. This armed movement has been in open conflict with the federal government since April 2023.
In Afar, a humanitarian source also reported, on Thursday, heavy artillery fire as fighters attempted to take the town of Yallo, near the Tigrayan border, according to comments collected by AFP and reported by The Guardian.
The US Ambassador to Ethiopia, Ervin Massinga, described the TPLF's offensive as "imperdable" and expressed regret over the decision, according to Capital Ethiopia. The Tigrayan movement, which has already been sanctioned by Washington this year, had also rejected the African Union's mediation led by former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo.
« We have the tools necessary to sanction other officials who are pushing Ethiopia in the wrong direction. »
The European Union, on its part, is calling for an immediate de-escalation and a return to the agreement on a permanent cessation of hostilities, reports Capital Ethiopia. Brussels also expressed concern over drone strikes carried out by federal forces against Tigrayan positions and emphasized the need to respect humanitarian law.
NPR cites the research organization ACLED, which has documented Ethiopian drone strikes targeting TPLF officials and forces over the past few months, focused on Mekele and southern Tigray: an indication that the truce was already showing signs of fracture before this week.
On September 20, seven opposition groups and armed movements announced the formation of a coalition, the Coalizione delle forze popolari etiopi per la sopravvivenza, with the stated goal of overthrowing the government of the Prosperity Party and installing an inclusive transitional executive, reports Italian weekly Internazionale, citing Ethiopian media Addis Standard.
In its statement, the coalition describes Abiy Ahmed's power as a "dictatorial, personalistic and genocidal regime", according to the same source — a phrase that measures, for Internazionale, the extent of the rift between Addis Ababa and some of its regional peripheries.
The Pretoria agreement was already unraveling before this week: the TPLF had retaken control of the interim regional administration provided for in the 2022 text, according to sources reported by Reuters and relayed by Daily Maverick.
On Wednesday, as fighting spread, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed returned to Addis Ababa after participating in the launch of the oil pipeline connecting Ethiopia to Djibouti — a sign, for the federal press cited by Fana BC, that the state remains in control of its schedule.
In Mekele, a doctor who runs a hospital in the city, where wounded people from the fighting are flocking, describes a situation that is constantly deteriorating, anonymously, according to Sveriges Radio.
« The situation is tense and it's only getting worse. The humanitarian situation is unbearable. »
An anonymous taxi driver told the Associated Press, relayed by ABC News, about the takeover of Mekele airport: lightly armed TPLF fighters took control without firing a shot, a commander telling him that no more flights would land there.
The TPLF's vice president, Amanuel Assefa, told AFP that sporadic clashes had been ongoing in the region for several months before intensifying in recent days.
Tigray is neighboring Eritrea and Sudan, Le Monde recalls, which fuels fears of a regional contagion in an already fragile Horn of Africa.
An advisor to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, he once led the TPLF before joining the federal camp.
Major General, former head of the Tigray regional police, he joined the federal government.
The party was removed from the list of authorized political parties in Ethiopia in 2025.
It notably includes the TPLF, the Fano Amhara, and the OLA Oromo, according to Internazionale.
7 perspectives, each in the voice of that country's press.
Addis Ababa denounces an "illegal" TPLF offensive, relying on defections and international support to establish its legitimacy, four years after the Pretoria agreement.
3 sources
Paris is watching Ethiopia's military shift towards total war, four years after Pretoria, front by front.
3 sources
Rome views the Ethiopian crisis as a direct challenge to the power of Abiy Ahmed, driven by a coalition of seven armed groups seeking to overthrow his government four years after the Pretoria agreement.
2 sources
Stockholm is first considering the human cost of the escalation in Tigray, four years after the 600,000 deaths of the previous war.
2 sources
London is deciphering a conflict where each side claims to be on the defensive, between seized airports and unverifiable military tolls on the ground.
2 sources
The United States is watching the weakening of Abiy Ahmed's power, who was reelected in June during an election boycotted by the opposition, and is now faced with an alliance of seven armed groups seeking to overthrow him in Addis Ababa.
2 sources
Pretoria is measuring the collapse of the peace agreement that bears its name, four years after hosting it, as the TPLF and six other Ethiopian armed groups are joining forces to overthrow Abiy Ahmed.
3 sources
Common ground and differences in coverage across the media analysed.
TPLF forces have taken control of three airports in Tigray (Mekele, Axoum and Shire), previously held by the federal police.
Ethiopian Airlines has suspended its flights to these three cities after the takeover of the airports.
Fighting has spread to the neighboring regions of Afar and Amhara, alongside local armed groups allied with the TPLF.
On the question of which side triggered the fighting, the press close to the Ethiopian government attributes the initiative to the TPLF, which it describes as an offensive with an illegal purpose, while some of the coverage initially relays the TPLF's version, which speaks of a defensive war against a federal offensive supported by drones and artillery.
On the question of what this escalation mainly represents, some of the coverage emphasizes the weakening of Abiy Ahmed's power in the face of a coalition of seven armed groups, while another part focuses the narrative on the fate of Mekele's civilians and the memory of the 600,000 dead from the 2020-2022 war.
Coverage aligned with this reading
Coverage that diverges
On the question of the reliability of the military figures put forward by the federal army (losses inflicted, surrenders), some of the coverage reiterates these figures without explicit reservations about independence, while another explicitly signals its inability to verify them independently from the region.
Coverage aligned with this reading
Coverage that diverges
This grouping describes the publications analysed, not the position of these countries’ populations or of their governments.
DOMINANT ANGLE
Addis Ababa denounces an "illegal" TPLF offensive, relying on defections and international support to establish its legitimacy, four years after the Pretoria agreement.
KEY POINTS
ANALYSIS
Addis-Abeba, 24 September 2026. For the Ethiopian press close to the government, the offensive launched on Wednesday by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) is not a defensive war but a unilateral breach of the Pretoria peace. Tigrayan forces have taken control of the airports in Mekele, Axum, and Shire, previously held by the federal police, and have extended the fighting to Afar and Amhara alongside local armed groups, forcing Ethiopian Airlines to suspend its flights to these three cities.
In Addis-Abeba, the focus is on defections. Fana BC reports that Major General Gebre Adhana, former commissioner of the Tigray regional police and a TPLF veteran, has broken with what the Ethiopian authorities call an "illegal" group to join the federal government. His decision is presented as a consequence of the TPLF's recruitment of child soldiers, an accusation repeated by federal media.
International support for Abiy Ahmed's executive is also being highlighted. US Ambassador Ervin Massinga has denounced an "unwinnable" offensive and deemed regrettable the TPLF's decision, already sanctioned this year by Washington, to reject the African Union's mediation led by former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo. He warned that the United States "has the tools necessary to sanction other officials who are pushing Ethiopia in the wrong direction," while calling for a political dialogue.
The European Union, on the other hand, is calling for an immediate de-escalation and a return to the permanent cessation of hostilities agreement, while expressing concern over the drone strikes carried out by the Ethiopian national defense forces against Tigrayan positions. Brussels insists on respect for humanitarian law and condemns any obstruction of aid.
As the TPLF now speaks of a "total war" and claims an alliance with six other armed groups aiming to overthrow Addis-Abeba, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, for his part, continued his agenda on Wednesday: he returned to the capital after participating in the launch of the Ethiopia-Djibouti oil pipeline, a sign, for the federal press, that the state remains in control of its calendar despite the crisis. Four years after the Pretoria agreement, which was supposed to end a war that had claimed around 600,000 lives, it is this continuity of central power, more than the extent of the fighting, that the Addis-Abeba press chooses to emphasize.
DOMINANT ANGLE
Paris is watching Ethiopia's military shift towards total war, four years after Pretoria, front by front.
KEY POINTS
ANALYSIS
Paris, Thursday, September 24, 2026. The French press describes an Ethiopia teetering, four years after the Pretoria peace agreement, towards a new large-scale conflict in the north of the country. Le Monde and RFI detailed, on Wednesday, September 23, the takeover by Tigrayan forces and their allies of the airports of Mekele, Axoum, and Shire, as well as the town of Abala in Afar, while the crossroads town of Woldiya, in Amhara, has been encircled since the same day.
According to RFI, this coordinated offensive on three fronts was launched on Tuesday, September 22, two days after the announcement of a new coalition of seven armed groups aiming to overthrow the federal government of Abiy Ahmed. In Afar, the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), associated with the United Democratic Revolutionary Front of Afar, took Abala, which was previously held by forces allied to the federal army: "There was shooting to celebrate their victory and checkpoints have been set up around the town," reports a humanitarian source cited by RFI's correspondent in Addis Ababa. The Fano militia, which has been in open conflict with Addis Ababa since April 2023, is also participating in the fighting in Amhara.
Le Monde reports the cross-accusations accompanying this escalation. The de facto authorities of Tigray claim that the federal government has "openly launched an invasion and an attack against [the TPLF], supported by infantry," adding that their army "has been ordered to counter this attack and this genocidal invasion, and has engaged in a defensive battle." In the opposite direction, Getachew Reda, Ethiopian Minister of East African Affairs and former TPLF official, accuses the rebels of having "launched a large-scale offensive against government positions in the Afar and Amhara regions."
The French media recall the context: the 2022 agreement had put an end to two years of a war deemed extremely deadly between Addis Ababa and the TPLF, which was removed in 2025 from the list of authorized parties. Tigray is a neighbor of Eritrea and Sudan, which already fuels fears of regional contagion in a fragile Horn of Africa.
At this stage, the French coverage prioritizes the military narrative, front by front, over the fate of civilian populations or the diplomatic outcome of this crisis.
DOMINANT ANGLE
Rome views the Ethiopian crisis as a direct challenge to the power of Abiy Ahmed, driven by a coalition of seven armed groups seeking to overthrow his government four years after the Pretoria agreement.
KEY POINTS
ANALYSIS
Rome, September 24, 2026. For the Italian press, what is happening in Ethiopia is not just a resurgence of fighting in Tigray: it's a direct challenge to the power of Abiy Ahmed. The weekly Internazionale titles straightforwardly "Una sfida al potere di Abiy" and places the origin of the shift on September 20, the day when seven opposition groups and armed movements announced the formation of an alliance, the Coalizione delle forze popolari etiopi per la sopravvivenza. According to Addis Standard, cited by the weekly, this coalition brings together the Mouvement national amhara Fano, the Armée de libération oromo (OLA), and the Front populaire de libération du Tigré (TPLF), with a declared objective: to overthrow the government of the Parti de la prospérité and install an inclusive transitional executive. The coalition describes Abiy's power as a "regime dittatoriale, personalistico e genocida" — a regime it deems dictatorial, personalistic, and genocidal —, an accusation that, for Internazionale, measures the extent of the rupture between Addis-Abeba and part of its regional peripheries.
It's in this climate that on September 23, the government and the TPLF mutually accused each other of having resumed hostilities. La Repubblica details the military sequence: a dawn assault on the Macallé airport, followed by similar actions on the Axoum and Shire airports. In a few hours, the Tigray rebels took control of three crucial air nodes in northern Ethiopia. Immediate consequence, reported by the Roman daily: Ethiopian Airlines cancelled all its flights to the region, fearing that these takeovers might be the spark for an escalation. Internazionale confirms, via AFP, that the Tigrayan forces took control of the Mekele airport and clashed with the government army in the neighboring region of Afar, raising fears of a return to war.
For the Italian press, the stakes go beyond the military map: it's the very survival of the Abiy government that is at issue, four years after the Pretoria peace agreement supposed to close a conflict that had ravaged a country of 139 million inhabitants. The formation of a seven-member coalition, mixing Amhara, Oromo, and Tigrayan movements, is read in Rome as a sign of a challenge that goes beyond Tigray alone and directly targets the top of the Ethiopian state.
DOMINANT ANGLE
Stockholm is first considering the human cost of the escalation in Tigray, four years after the 600,000 deaths of the previous war.
KEY POINTS
ANALYSIS
Stockholm, September 24, 2026. From the studios of Sveriges Radio, the Ethiopian crisis is told primarily through the voices of Mekele residents rather than those of chancelleries. Neither the UN nor the European Union is mentioned in the Swedish dispatches published in recent hours: it is an anonymous doctor and a correspondent in East Africa who carry the story.
The Swedish public service reports that the rebels of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) have taken control of Mekele airport, prompting the national carrier Ethiopian Airlines to suspend, in its words, "på obestämd tid" (until further notice) all its flights to the region. A doctor who runs a hospital in the city, where wounded people from the fighting between the army and the rebels are being treated, describes to Sveriges Radio a situation that is constantly deteriorating: "Läget är spänt och det blir bara värre och värre. Den humanitära situationen är ohållbar", he says, anonymously - the situation is tense and only getting worse, the humanitarian situation is unbearable.
The tabloid Aftonbladet, citing AFP, relays the words of Amanuel Assefa, vice-president of the TPLF: the fighting now affects three regions, Tigray, Afar, and Amhara, and the two camps are engaged in a "fullskaligt krig", a total war, against government forces. According to him, sporadic clashes had been going on for months before intensifying in recent days.
Sveriges Radio's Africa correspondent, Mona Ismail Jama, who has collected testimonies on the ground, recalls that the government had sought to contain the rebels within Tigray, before reports emerged of a rebel advance into neighboring regions, to which Addis Ababa allegedly responded with drone strikes on targets within Tigray itself. She emphasizes that the local population fears a return to total war, remembering the 2020-2022 conflict, which killed 600,000 people.
None of the three Swedish articles consulted mentions the UN or EU calls for restraint, or the American threat of sanctions relayed elsewhere: the prism retained in Stockholm remains that of the terrain, of cut-off flights and food stocks, rather than that of Western capitals.
DOMINANT ANGLE
London is deciphering a conflict where each side claims to be on the defensive, between seized airports and unverifiable military tolls on the ground.
KEY POINTS
ANALYSIS
London, 24 September 2026. For the British press, the new surge in violence in northern Ethiopia is first and foremost a military confrontation, with each side claiming to be on the defensive, and no version can be verified from the field. On Wednesday, Tigrayan forces took control of three airports previously held by the federal police, forcing Ethiopian Airlines to suspend its flights to Mekele, Shire, and Axum, according to the BBC. In the aftermath, fighting broke out in the neighboring regions of Afar and Amhara, where the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) claims to have carried out attacks alongside local armed groups.
The two sides accuse each other of having triggered the hostilities. Getachew Reda, advisor to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and former Tigrayan leader who joined the federal government, denounces a full-scale TPLF offensive against government positions in Afar and Amhara. In contrast, the Tigrayan authorities claim to have entered a "defensive war", citing drone strikes on their territory. The TPLF's vice-president, Amanuel Assefa, summed up the situation to AFP, quoted by the BBC and The Guardian: "We are in the situation of full-blown war now."
The Ethiopian army, in its first statement since the start of the fighting on Wednesday, claims to have repelled the attacks in Amhara, near the Tigrayan border, and claims 272 TPLF soldiers were killed. The BBC notes, however, that it cannot verify these figures independently, specifying that it is not able to report from Tigray and the surrounding areas.
The escalation comes three days after the announcement, on Sunday, of an alliance between the TPLF and six other Ethiopian armed groups aiming to overthrow the government in Addis Ababa. It revives the memory of the 2020-2022 war, which killed around 600,000 people according to the African Union mediator, before the Pretoria peace agreement in 2022 — an agreement that both sides have been accusing each other of violating for several months.
According to security sources quoted by AFP and reported by The Guardian, Tigrayan fighters have also taken the town of Abala, on the border between Tigray and Afar, while fighting is taking place around Weldiya, in Amhara — one of the few road axes leading to Addis Ababa.
DOMINANT ANGLE
The United States is watching the weakening of Abiy Ahmed's power, who was reelected in June during an election boycotted by the opposition, and is now faced with an alliance of seven armed groups seeking to overthrow him in Addis Ababa.
KEY POINTS
ANALYSIS
Washington, September 24, 2026. Two American media outlets, NPR and ABC News, draw the same conclusion: Ethiopia is sliding into a new war in Tigray, four years after the 2022 peace agreement. According to NPR, Tigrayan forces have taken control of several airports in the region, while fighting has spread to the neighboring regions of Afar and Amhara. Ethiopian Airlines has suspended its flights to Mekele, Axum, and Shire.
The two sides accuse each other of having triggered the offensive. Getachew Reda, an advisor to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, denounces an "all-out offensive" by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) against government positions. Tigrayan authorities respond that their forces are reacting "defensively" to attacks by federal troops. NPR cites the research organization ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project), which documents Ethiopian drone strikes targeting TPLF leaders and forces in recent months, concentrated on Mekele and southern Tigray.
ABC News reports the account of a taxi driver, who remains anonymous for fear of reprisals, according to which the takeover of Mekele airport, usually under federal control, was carried out by lightly armed TPLF fighters without a shot being fired. A commander allegedly ordered him to leave the area, announcing that no more flights would land.
The American press mainly links this escalation to the weakening of the power in Addis Ababa. Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party retained power in the general elections in June, which were boycotted by the main opposition groups. Three days before the takeover of the airport, seven groups, including the TPLF, announced the formation of an alliance aimed at overthrowing Abiy Ahmed and establishing a transitional administration.
NPR recalls that the Tigray war (2020-2022) was one of the deadliest conflicts of the recent period, with an estimated toll of around 600,000 deaths, before the November 2022 peace agreement. Since July, drone strikes have been reported in the region, with the Tigrayan government attributing responsibility to federal forces.
DOMINANT ANGLE
Pretoria is measuring the collapse of the peace agreement that bears its name, four years after hosting it, as the TPLF and six other Ethiopian armed groups are joining forces to overthrow Abiy Ahmed.
KEY POINTS
ANALYSIS
Pretoria, September 24, 2026. Four years after hosting the signing of the peace agreement bearing its name, Pretoria is seeing the resurgence of the war it thought it had helped to close. On Wednesday, forces from the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) took control of three airports in northern Ethiopia — Mekele, Shire, and Axum — previously held by the federal police, forcing Ethiopian Airlines to suspend its flights to these cities, report Daily Maverick, TimesLIVE, and Business Day, citing Reuters.
The two camps blame each other for the fighting. The TPLF-led regional administration claims to have entered a "defensive war" in the face of "the intensification of the invasion carried out by various methods by the autocratic and genocidal regime of Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity against the Tigray people," according to its statement. In contrast, Getachew Reda, advisor to Abiy Ahmed and former TPLF leader, writes that it was the Tigray forces that seized the federal airports and launched a "total offensive" against government positions in the neighboring regions of Afar and Amhara.
The escalation follows the announcement, on Sunday, of an alliance between the TPLF and six other Ethiopian armed groups aiming to overthrow the Addis Ababa government. According to four sources — an Ethiopian government official, a diplomatic source, a humanitarian source, and a source close to the TPLF — Tigray forces are now fighting alongside a local armed group in Afar and the Fano militia in Amhara.
The Pretoria agreement, signed in November 2022 after a civil war that killed hundreds of thousands, was already unraveling: the TPLF had taken back control of the interim regional administration provided for in the text in May, while the Ethiopian army had stepped up drone strikes against Tigray forces in recent months, according to data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project. Addis Ababa claims that nearly 300 Tigray fighters surrendered last week.
For the South African press, the stakes go beyond regional diplomacy: it is the very credibility of the negotiating process on its soil that is wavering, four years after having brought the hope of lasting peace to the Horn of Africa.
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