Toward a deal to end the U.S.-Iran war

On 24 May 2026, Donald Trump announced that a framework agreement with Iran, intended to end roughly 86 days of war, was "largely negotiated". The text remains unsigned: several disputed points, notably the precise wording, are still to be settled between the two sides. The central gain put forward is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a passage for about one fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas, whose closure weighs simultaneously on Western markets, Gulf economies and Asian importers.

The conflict broke out in late February 2026, after US-Israeli strikes in which Iran's supreme leader was killed, plunging the region into its gravest crisis in decades. The framework agreement marks a first step toward de-escalation. Its architecture reflects mutual concessions as much as friction: Washington has softened its initial demands on enrichment and pushed the nuclear file to a later phase, estimated at 30-60 days, while Tehran maintains its stance on sovereignty over the strait.

Pakistani mediation, backed by consultations with Gulf states, is credited by the parties with bringing positions closer. The settlement of Iran's nuclear programme, deliberately deferred, remains the major unknown for any lasting deal.

Several uncertainties persist. The postponement of the nuclear component is presented by some actors as the central unresolved obstacle, while others favour the energy angle. The reliability of the process is itself debated: Saturday's announcement was followed by a call "not to rush". Finally, internal fragmentation in the United States, between an executive eager to restore oil flows and senators who deem the deal insufficient, remains an uncertainty for the finalisation of the text.