SPAIN PERSPECTIVE

Madrid, May 28, 2026. The word keeps popping up in every AEMET bulletin: 'extraordinary.' The heatwave that hit Spain in late May 2026 is not just distinguished by the temperatures reached – typical of July in the spring – but also by its duration. 'The persistence of this heat episode is very notable: it is likely that the heat will continue for several more days, and with the current forecasts, there is no sign of a return to normal,' the agency warned in a statement.

Meteorologist Mario Picazo, interviewed by El Confidencial, summarizes the data in a single phrase: 'A few decades ago, it was small spring heatwaves of two or three days; now it lasts up to two weeks.' The climate signal is at the heart of the Spanish debate. Christophe Cassou, a climatologist cited by the same sources, goes further: such an episode would have been almost impossible without climate change, with a probability estimated at 1 in 1,000 in an unperturbed climate.

The projections for the 2026 summer add to the concern. According to Samuel Biener, a climatologist at Meteored, some areas could experience temperatures between 1.5 and 3 degrees above seasonal averages. But heat is not the only danger: models also predict a more unstable summer, with violent storms, hail, and intense rainfall concentrated over short periods, without alleviating the country's structural water deficit.

In the face of this double threat – drought and wildfires – AEMET has launched a new tool: the IPIF, Forest Fire Danger Index. This surveillance system now integrates non-strictly meteorological variables such as vegetation state, soil humidity, and surface types, in addition to classic indicators (temperature, wind, precipitation). Its spatial resolution has improved from 5 kilometers to 1 kilometer, allowing for more precise targeting of extreme-risk zones. The number of alert levels has also increased from five to six, with the addition of a 'very low' level to better calibrate resources.

President Pedro Sánchez has announced the deployment of additional means to combat wildfires for the summer, a direct response to criticism that followed the catastrophic episodes of previous years. In the background, the economic debate: the tourism sector, a pillar of the Spanish economy, is anxiously watching the effects of a reputation as a wildfire-prone country on summer bookings in Mediterranean regions. Expansión magazine recalls that the transition to renewable energies has become 'a matter of security, sovereignty, and prosperity' for Spain – and no longer just an environmental commitment.