TAIWAN PERSPECTIVE

Taipei, July 9, 2026. In Taiwan, the firing of a Chinese long-range ballistic missile into the South Pacific, launched from a nuclear submarine with a dummy warhead, is not seen as an isolated incident, but rather as part of a broader military escalation that the island has been closely monitoring for months.

According to Xinhua, cited by the Taiwanese press, Beijing framed this launch - the first of its kind since an intercontinental missile launch two years ago - as an "annual routine training exercise", in line with international law and "not directed against any country or target". Australia, Japan, and New Zealand have condemned the test; Wellington claims it was only notified a few hours before the launch, which took place in the nuclear-free zone of the South Pacific established by the 1986 Rarotonga Treaty, which Beijing ratified in 1987.

Meeting in Turkey, the US, Japanese, and South Korean foreign ministers expressed shared concern and reaffirmed the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. Australia, New Zealand, the Philippines, and Tuvalu - a diplomatic ally of Taiwan - have done the same, while the Pacific Islands Forum is preparing a joint statement of condemnation.

For Luke de Pulford, director of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC), who attended the Taiwan International Oceanic Forum, this launch marks a "clear escalation" of Beijing's regional behavior; he calls on the international community not to "sleepwalk into the next Ukraine" and demands clear red lines backed by concrete sanctions.

Taiwanese intelligence directly links the incident to China's growing naval power: Tsai Ming-yen, director of the National Security Bureau, counts four Chinese naval formations in the western Pacific, one in the South Pacific, two near Okinawa, and one off the Philippines. Joseph Wu, secretary-general of the National Security Council, mentions over 110 Chinese navy and coast guard ships deployed along the first island chain, which he sees as a sign of "expansionism". Kuan Bi-ling, minister of the Ocean Affairs Council, warns that these "gray zone" tactics risk imposing a new status quo in the strait before the international community notices.