PAKISTAN PERSPECTIVE
GULF CRISIS: WASHINGTON REINSTATES HORMUZ BLOCKADE AS OIL SURGES
DOMINANT ANGLE
Pakistan's capital, Islamabad, is gauging the risk at its doorstep: as a direct neighbor of Iran and a supplier of millions of expatriate workers to the Gulf, Pakistan fears a surge in oil prices and a direct threat to its diaspora, as well as the potential for regional military contagion.
Dominant angle identified — does not reflect unanimity of this country’s media
ANALYSIS
Islamabad, July 14, 2026. On Pakistan's western border, the escalation between the United States and Iran is no longer a diplomatic abstraction: it directly impacts the national economy and the security of millions of Pakistani expatriates in the Gulf. The price of Brent crude has jumped by more than 3% to $78.48 a barrel after a new wave of American strikes on oil and military infrastructure in southern Iran, in the province of Khuzestan and around Bandar Abbas - the third such attack in a week. Following the interim agreement signed last month, global oil supply had increased by 4.1 million barrels per day in June, but still remains 9.4 million barrels below pre-war levels, according to the International Energy Agency cited by Dawn. For a net energy-importing country with a fragile balance of payments, this surge directly threatens domestic inflation and foreign exchange reserves.
The potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, reaffirmed by the Revolutionary Guards after their strikes on American bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, concerns Islamabad as much as the energy issue itself. Maritime traffic has fallen to its lowest level in five weeks, with only six ships passing through on Sunday, according to Kpler data cited by Dawn - a chokepoint for nearly a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas that historically used this route.
Beyond oil prices, it is the fate of the Pakistani diaspora that is a concern: several million workers reside in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait, all of which are now being targeted by Iranian missile and drone strikes, reports Geo News. The extension of Iranian strikes to the UAE and Qatar - which had been spared since early May and April, respectively - marks a significant escalation of the conflict's reach, beyond the waters of the Strait, according to the Express Tribune. Centcom spokesman Tim Hawkins assured that Iranian missiles and drones had been intercepted; US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that "Iran has made a bad choice, and it is now paying the price."
Donald Trump stated that the Strait remains open to commercial traffic, a claim immediately contradicted by Tehran, which promises a "severe response" to any new incursion. This confusion over the reality of the blockade fuels, in Islamabad, the fear of a prolonged war that would render the US-Iran interim agreement obsolete, already fragile according to Dawn. Without being a party to the conflict, Pakistan finds itself caught between preserving its relations with Washington and Tehran and the imperative of protecting its citizens and energy supply.
KEY POINTS
- Pakistan's government is closely monitoring the surge in global oil prices, as the Brent crude jumped over 3 percent on Monday to $78.48, following a new wave of US strikes in southern Iran, according to reports in Dawn.
- Pakistan's shipping industry is bracing for potential disruptions, as traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in five weeks, with only six ships transiting on Sunday, according to data from Kpler, as reported by Dawn.
- The Iranian strikes have now expanded to the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, territories that had been spared since early May and April, respectively, in a development being closely watched by Pakistan, as reported by Geo News and the Express Tribune.
COGNITIVE BIASES IDENTIFIED
Pakistan's economy-centric framing: strong emphasis on oil prices and maritime traffic, reflecting Pakistan's interests as an energy importer and provider of expatriate labor.
Preference for official US and Iranian sources (Centcom, Revolutionary Guards) relayed verbatim, to the detriment of direct reactions from Pakistani authorities.
Limited coverage of the human impact on the Pakistani diaspora in the Gulf despite its magnitude, with articles focusing on the military and energy mechanics of the conflict.
SOURCES (3)
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