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IRAN-US CEASEFIRE ON LIFE SUPPORT: HORMUZ SEALED, GLOBAL OIL SHOCK DEEPENS
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Jerusalem reads the situation as missiles still operational, deterrence questioned: the war is far from won
Dominant angle identified — does not reflect unanimity of this country’s media
Jerusalem, May 12, 2026. The Jerusalem Post led its site with information that sent a chill through Israeli defense circles: according to the New York Times, citing senior US officials, Iran has regained access to the majority of its missile sites. Worse still: thirty of these sites are located along the Strait of Hormuz, within range of American warships. And Iran maintains approximately 70% of its mobile launchers, capable of firing from non-operational sites while still reaching their targets.
This information challenges one of the key victory narratives Israel had built around the joint US-Israeli strikes of February 28: the reduction of Iran's ballistic threat. Jerusalem Post analysts dissect the semantic confusion: 'ballistic missile' means very different things depending on whether one is speaking of the Pentagon, the CIA, or the Israeli military. The objective achieved may not have been what the public understood.
In this context, the voice of Reza Pahlavi, Iranian crown prince, resonated at the Politico Security Summit in Washington. The former heir called on the United States to abandon all negotiations with the Islamic Republic and fully support regime change. His argument: Tehran is 'incapable of reform', and 'the historic moment' must be seized. This position, marginal in chancelleries, finds growing resonance in certain American neoconservative and Israeli circles.
Meanwhile, on the Israeli domestic front, police reported that Israeli citizens received recruitment or intimidation text messages from 'Iranian intelligence elements', offering to buy war videos or promising a 'bright future' through contact with Iranian embassies abroad.
Saudi Arabia added another layer to this multi-front war: according to Reuters and several Western officials, Riyadh conducted secret retaliatory strikes on Iranian territory in March — the first time in history the kingdom has directly attacked Iran militarily. The UAE targeted the Lavan Island refinery. These revelations further expand the map of a conflict that some in Jerusalem want to see concluded with a clear victory — but whose real contours prove more complex every day.
Threat-and-deterrence framing: Iranian ballistic capabilities structure the entire reading of the conflict
Preference for US and Israeli defense sources: few Arab voices or Iranian civilian voices
Light coverage of effects on Iranian civilians and of the conflict's humanitarian costs
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