UNITED STATES PERSPECTIVE

Washington, May 12, 2026. Donald Trump deployed a phrase that echoed through every American newsroom on Monday: the ceasefire with Iran is now 'on massive life support'. The medical metaphor captures the administration's bind — caught between rhetoric about 'complete victory' and an economic reality that is beginning to bite Republican voters.

The president initially refused to read Iran's counter-proposal to the end, transmitted via Pakistani mediators, calling it 'garbage'. Tehran was demanding the lifting of the naval blockade, war damage reparations, recognition of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, and a comprehensive settlement including the Lebanese front. For Trump, who had announced in mid-February that strikes on Iran would mark 'the end of Middle East madness', accepting these terms would amount to a diplomatic defeat.

But economic numbers are accumulating with a brutality the administration can no longer ignore. The consumer price index rose to 3.8% year-over-year for April 2026, up from 3.3% in March. Gasoline is the main culprit: up 28% year-over-year, up 5.4% in April alone. Facing these figures, Trump floated a possible elimination of the federal gas tax — 18.4 cents per gallon — a measure that only partially won over his Republican allies in Congress.

On Capitol Hill, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth defended a $1.5 trillion military budget for 2027 — a historic level — before lawmakers who, including in Republican ranks, are questioning the legality and strategy of a conflict never officially declared. 'Munitions stocks are exhausted,' said one Republican senator, citing an Iranian source. Iran has regained control of the majority of its missile sites, including 30 along the Strait of Hormuz, according to the New York Times citing senior US officials.

Trump was leaving Washington for Beijing as these lines were written, his first overseas trip since the conflict began in February. He tried to downplay disagreements with Xi on Iran: 'We're going to have a long talk about it. He's been relatively good, to be honest.' Behind the casual posture, the stakes are critical: the US needs China to press Tehran to open Hormuz. Yet Xi arrives at this summit in a position of strength, having consolidated China's economic ties with Iran and leveraging the weakening of America's position to renegotiate on Taiwan and tariffs.

The question all of Washington is now asking, without a clear answer: will Trump relaunch 'Project Freedom' — the offensive naval escort in the Strait — or find in the dynamics of the Sino-American summit a diplomatic way out? Military options remain on the table, multiple advisers confirm. But the 2026 midterms are approaching, and an America paying $5 per gallon is starting to want this war to end.