INDIA PERSPECTIVE

New Delhi, May 12, 2026. Uday Kotak, one of India's most influential bankers, chose blunt words to describe the situation: 'The shock is coming.' Supporting Prime Minister Narendra Modi's call for vigilance against geopolitical risks, the Kotak Mahindra Bank founder warned that the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz represented a systemic economic threat to an India that imports 85% of its oil needs.

The figures confirm the alert. The Saudi Aramco chairman estimated that the global energy shock triggered by the Iran war could extend to 2027 — a prospect that froze Asian markets. For India, whose trade balance is directly exposed to crude prices, every extra dollar on Brent translates into pressure on the rupee and the import bill.

But it is on the diplomatic front that the situation is most delicate for New Delhi. Pakistan, the official mediator between Washington and Tehran, now faces American criticism after revelations that Iranian military aircraft were stationed at Nur Khan base during the ceasefire. NDTV published satellite images confirming the aircraft's presence, including an RC-130 reconnaissance plane. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham declared publicly: 'I don't trust Pakistan.' Islamabad called the report 'speculative and misleading'.

For India, the spectacle of a Pakistan simultaneously serving as mediator and suspected of protecting Iran is a paradoxical geopolitical windfall: it weakens its regional rival and complicates Islamabad's posture. But it also creates instability in the neighborhood that does not serve Indian long-term interests.

India's coverage of the crisis reveals a third dimension rarely addressed in the West: the unexpected winners of the Iran war. NDTV cites energy-resilient economies — those that have massively invested in renewables — as the major beneficiaries of the shock. India itself, which accelerated its solar program since 2024, finds itself relatively better positioned than Japan or South Korea, still heavily dependent on Gulf hydrocarbons. A nuance that Western media, focused on Brent and the American military response, tend to overlook.