CANADA PERSPECTIVE

Ottawa, May 22, 2026. Twelve weeks after the war began, six weeks after a partial ceasefire took effect, US-Iran talks are progressing at a slow pace. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged on Thursday the existence of 'some good signs,' while tempering optimism: 'I don't want to be too optimistic. Let's see what happens in the coming days.'

Canadian press, via the Globe and Mail, situates this cautious opening in a context of persistent blockage on two fundamental issues. First, the Strait of Hormuz: before the conflict began on February 28, 125-140 ships crossed daily, ensuring the transit of approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas deliveries. Today, this traffic is reduced to a trickle. Iran has hinted at reopening the passage to 'friendly' countries, subject to transit fees — a position Washington deems incompatible with any diplomatic solution. 'We want it to be open, free. We don't want tolls. It's an international navigable route,' President Trump said.

Second point of friction: Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile. Trump claimed the US would 'recover' and 'likely destroy' it, rejecting Tehran's argument that this enrichment is for civilian purposes. Two Iranian sources cited by Reuters indicate that Supreme Leader Khamenei has ordered that this uranium not be transferred abroad.

In this tense environment, Pakistani mediation intervenes. Interior Minister Syed Mohsin Naqvi met on Friday with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in Tehran, two days after transmitting the last US message. ISNA agency notes that Naqvi seeks to establish 'a framework to end the war and resolve differences.' A senior Iranian source confirmed to Reuters that gaps are narrowing, without downplaying remaining obstacles.

The economic dimension occupies a central place in Canadian coverage. The International Energy Agency has characterized the conflict as the worst global energy shock ever recorded and warned on Thursday that a combination of peak summer demand and Middle Eastern supply contraction risks pushing the market into the 'red zone' in July and August.