GERMANY PERSPECTIVE

Berlin, May 22, 2026. From Deutsche Welle, the German perspective on the Hormuz crisis is one of careful attention to economic balances and the risks of escalation. The international public media frames the situation in terms of endurance: who, Washington or Tehran, will give in first?

The initial assessment is severe. The standoff, described as 'blocked, dysfunctional, and dangerous,' has entered its fourth month. Two blockades face off: Iran charges up to $2 million - approximately $1.73 million - to allow ships to pass through the strait, while the US has imposed a naval embargo pushing Iranian oil tankers back. The result: a stalemate where each side believes it has the upper hand.

The numbers cited by DW are telling. According to Miad Maleki, a researcher at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) in Washington, Iran loses around $435 million per day in commerce, with two-thirds coming from oil exports. After 39 days of US naval blockade, Iran's public finances would have already incurred approximately $17 billion in losses - plus $144 billion in damage caused by US-Israeli airstrikes during the conflict's early weeks. Burcu Ozcelik, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, affirms bluntly: 'Despite Tehran's rhetoric on regime resilience, its economy is not immune to a blockade.'

But the pressure is not one-sided. Donald Trump faces growing constraints: rising oil prices fuel domestic inflation, and the November mid-term elections strengthen the political cost of any military escalation. Dania Thafer, executive director of the Gulf International Forum (GIF) in Washington, estimates that Trump's intermittent military threats may have backfired: 'The Iranian response suggests the opposite, she tells DW. They interpret this as a lack of American willingness to escalate the war.'

Pakistani mediation - led by Chief of Staff Asim Munir, who arrived in Tehran - and a one-page memorandum jointly proposed by the US and the UN to reopen Hormuz without Iranian tolls or control claims are presented as the only available exit routes. Gulf states, economically exposed and averse to risk, actively support these initiatives. In private, they warn that a frozen conflict would compromise their economic diversification plans, funded with hundreds of billions of dollars.