GERMANY PERSPECTIVE
PUTIN HEADS TO BEIJING AFTER TRUMP COURTS XI: CHINA'S MOMENT?
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DOMINANT ANGLE
Berlin views the back-to-back visits of Trump and Putin to Beijing as confirmation that China has become the indispensable arbiter of the global order, placing Europe in a geopolitical rebalancing that it cannot control.
Dominant angle identified — does not reflect unanimity of this country’s media
ANALYSIS
Berlin, May 18, 2026. The sequence is striking: Donald Trump left Beijing just a few days ago, and Vladimir Putin is now arriving in the Chinese capital for his 25th official visit to China. For Berlin, and for the analysts at the MERICS Institute who are monitoring Beijing from the German capital, this schedule is not coincidental - it reveals a reality that Germany is observing with increasing attention: China is now the indispensable actor in any major geopolitical recomposition.
Officially, the Putin-Xi summit is to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the Sino-Russian Treaty of Good Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation, signed in 2001. But the files piling up on the table are much heavier. According to Claus Soong, a researcher at MERICS interviewed by Deutsche Welle, the simultaneity of Trump's and Putin's visits puts Beijing in a structurally advantageous position: the United States is seeking a diplomatic lever in China on crises like Iran, while Russia is waiting for Beijing's strategic partner solidarity. Xi Jinping has no choice - he receives both.
The economic figures highlight this asymmetry in a striking way. China is far and away Russia's top trading partner: it provides over a third of Russia's imports and absorbs over a quarter of Russia's exports, mainly energy-related. Moscow depends on Chinese purchases of oil and gas to fuel its war chest, and its arms industry remains dependent on dual-use products imported from China. A Reuters investigation in July 2025 revealed that Chinese companies had allegedly used shell companies to deliver drone motors to Russian arms manufacturers, disguised as industrial cooling equipment - accusations that Beijing rejects.
For Putin, the immediate issue is to ensure that the Sino-American rapprochement does not come at his expense. Trump left Beijing without a joint final statement, only with positive words. In contrast, the Kremlin and Beijing announced a joint communiqué after the Putin-Xi summit - a sign of a more solid relationship on the formal level. Soong also notes that Moscow is seeking to identify a credible mediator if Russia were to decide to negotiate a withdrawal from the Ukrainian conflict. Signals like the relative discretion of the Victory Day parade and the continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure suggest fatigue with war at the Kremlin.
Berlin also retains Soong's fundamental analysis: Beijing does not want either Moscow's total victory or its collapse.
KEY POINTS
- China provides over a third of Russia's imports and absorbs over a quarter of Russia's exports, making it Russia's top trading partner (DW/MERICS).
- According to Claus Soong (MERICS), the United States and Russia simultaneously need China, but for opposite reasons, placing Beijing in a structurally advantageous position.
- A Reuters investigation in July 2025 alleged that Chinese companies had delivered drone motors to Russian arms manufacturers via shell companies - accusations rejected by Beijing.
COGNITIVE BIASES IDENTIFIED
MERICS-centric institutional framing: the analysis relies almost exclusively on an expert from a Berlin think tank, without direct Russian, American, or Ukrainian voices.
Preference for geostrategic reading: the article emphasizes the power relations between great powers at the expense of the human toll and consequences of the war in Ukraine.
Low coverage of the European perspective: despite the direct interest for Germany and the EU, the reaction of European allies to this Sino-Russian-American triangulation is absent.
SOURCES (2)
Deutsche WelleCenter
RELIABLESTATE MEDIA
DW German
MEDIUMSTATE MEDIA
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