JAPAN PERSPECTIVE

Tokyo, May 18, 2026. The Japanese capital closely watches the diplomatic sequence unfolding in Beijing this month. After the two-day summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, it was Vladimir Putin's turn to land in the Chinese capital to mark the 25th anniversary of the Sino-Russian Friendship Treaty. For Tokyo, this succession in a few days of two major state visits to Xi Jinping summarizes the rise of China as an indispensable pole in global diplomacy.

Kyodo News detailed the conclusions of the Trump-Xi summit: North Korea's denuclearization as a 'common goal,' delivery of 200 Boeing aircraft to Chinese companies, guaranteed US agricultural purchases worth $17 billion annually until 2028, and creation of two new bilateral institutions — a Board of Trade and a Board of Investment. China also committed to addressing US concerns over rare earths and critical minerals, whose export restrictions had caused tensions in global supply chains.

These Sino-American concessions directly interest Tokyo. Japan remains heavily dependent on Chinese rare earths for its electronics and automotive industries. The fact that Washington secured guarantees on this issue — without consulting Tokyo through a joint mechanism — illustrates the bilateral logic prevailing in this phase of international relations redefinition.

On North Korea, the confirmation of a 'shared goal' of denuclearization between Trump and Xi is noted in Tokyo, but with caution. Past diplomatic precedents have shown the distance between summit declarations and concrete progress. The issue of Japanese nationals abducted by Pyongyang, a top priority for the Ishiba government, is not mentioned in any public statement from the Trump-Xi meeting.

As for Putin's visit, it fits a logic that Tokyo analyzes with attention: Russia is China's top trading partner, absorbing over a quarter of its exports and providing over a third of its imports. This economic interdependence, strengthened since the start of the Ukraine war, gives Beijing significant leverage over Moscow. For Japan, which maintains sanctions against Russia and remains committed to supporting Ukraine alongside the G7, seeing Beijing manage its relations with Washington and Moscow simultaneously reinforces the impression of a China playing all sides.