INDIA PERSPECTIVE

New Delhi, May 23, 2026. When Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Prime Minister Narendra Modi for more than an hour at Hyderabad House, the central focus of their discussion was not abstract geopolitics but concrete fuel: oil, gas, modular nuclear reactors. The U.S. Secretary of State stated that the United States is producing and exporting energy at historic levels, and that Washington intends to "sell India as much energy as it will buy." The statement, direct to the point of commercial bluntness, reflects the dual logic of the American approach: reduce Indian dependence on Moscow and Tehran while opening a massive outlet for U.S. liquefied natural gas and crude oil exports.

The urgency is real for New Delhi. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a consequence of the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, has disrupted hydrocarbon flows to one of the world's most energy-intensive economies. India has had to introduce emergency measures—including fuel price increases—to cushion the crisis. Intermittent sanctions on Russian oil delivered by tanker compound the problem. The U.S. Treasury extended a 30-day waiver allowing countries "energy-vulnerable" to temporarily purchase Russian crude without violating sanctions, precisely to avert a sharp supply rupture.

Rubio assured India that Washington will not "allow Iran to hold the global energy market hostage." He also raised Venezuela as a complementary supply source, signaling that "opportunities exist with Venezuelan oil." On nuclear power, collaboration on small modular reactors (SMRs)—a next-generation technology—was tabled, extending a dialogue begun several years earlier.

Yet New Delhi is not embarking on an exclusive agenda. Strategic autonomy remains the guiding principle of Indian foreign policy: diversify, yes; depend, no. Russian oil bought at reduced prices since 2022 has provided a crucial safety net. Abandoning it entirely in favor of American supplies—structurally more expensive and subject to the vicissitudes of U.S. domestic politics—would be a risky bet.

The visit also occurs in a context of diplomatic turbulence. A week after accompanying Trump to Beijing, Rubio arrived in New Delhi to repair ties strained by U.S. tariffs raised to 50 percent on Indian exports last year, and by visible warming between Washington and Beijing. The Quad foreign ministers meeting, scheduled for May 26 with Australia and Japan, will provide a multilateral framework for New Delhi to consolidate its position without appearing as Washington's sole bilateral interlocutor.