BRAZIL PERSPECTIVE

Brasília, July 21, 2026. In Brasília, the Brazilian government views Donald Trump's decision to impose 50% tariffs on a series of Canadian products — including automobiles, alcoholic beverages, and dairy products — as a bitter echo. Brazil is facing its own tariff battle with the United States: a 25% surtax is already in effect, and an additional 12.5% increase is expected as of Wednesday, July 22, based on a US investigation into imports linked to forced labor.

According to Brazilian officials, the Canadian situation confirms a strategy already in place: to avoid any spectacular reaction. The presidential directive is to "avoid a reaction that gives ammunition" to Trump and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, a presidential pre-candidate who advisors suspect wants to push President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva towards intransigence for electoral reasons. Instead, Brasília is focusing on expanding the list of exceptions and resuming negotiations, while considering activating the economic reciprocity law — a process deemed slow by the government itself.

The environmental grounds cited by the US against Brazil are being directly contested. Marcio Astrini, from the Climate Observatory, denounces a "purely political measure": Brazilian deforestation decreased by 20.6% in 2025, to 984,794 hectares, below the one million mark for the first time since 2019, according to MapBiomas.

In the face of US pressure, some are suggesting a pivot towards China, Brazil's largest trading partner (with $99.94 billion in exports in 2025, compared to $37.7 billion to the United States). However, analysts cited by G1 downplay this idea: the manufactured products targeted by the tariffs are precisely those that China exports itself, limiting any rapid substitution of markets.