IRAQ PERSPECTIVE

Baghdad, May 18, 2026. As Donald Trump reiterates his threats of strikes against Iran, warning that there will be 'nothing left' of them if Tehran does not quickly comply with an agreement, Iraq finds itself at the center of a double crisis it did not choose. The conflict between Washington and Tehran, which entered a ceasefire phase in April after erupting on February 28, continues to weigh heavily on Iraq's security environment.

Iraqi press coverage of the issue is revealing: while Trump's threats are mentioned, it's mainly through their concrete effects on regional markets and trade routes. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, now in effect for nearly eleven weeks according to analyst Michael Wan of MUFG bank, has pushed Brent crude above $111 a barrel and triggered turbulence on Asian stock exchanges. For an oil-exporting country, this instability has direct repercussions on Iraq's budget revenues.

But it's another crisis that dominates Baghdad's attention on May 18: the interception by Saudi Arabia of three drones that transited through Iraqi airspace. The Saudi Defense Ministry, through the voice of General Turki al-Malki, stated that the aircraft were shot down on Sunday morning and reserved the right to respond 'at the appropriate time and place.' Riyadh had already, the previous month, summoned the Iraqi ambassador to protest against similar incidents.

The Iraqi Foreign Ministry responded on Monday by stating that its air defenses had not detected any drones taking off from national territory, and that it had not received information about the attack through its own means. Baghdad has nonetheless opened an investigation and asked Riyadh to communicate the technical data it has. Iraqi diplomacy has also reaffirmed its opposition to any use of armed factions present on Iraqi soil to strike neighboring countries.

This incident comes at the worst possible time for Prime Minister Ali Falih al-Zaidi, whose government has just taken office. Baghdad's ability to contain Iranian-backed armed groups operating on its territory is directly called into question, and the combined pressure from Washington and Riyadh risks exacerbating the diplomatic fragility of a state caught between its economic dependencies on Gulf countries and its political ties with Tehran.