TURKEY PERSPECTIVE

Istanbul, May 18, 2026. Hours before a planned military strike against Iran, Donald Trump announced on Monday that he was abandoning it, citing explicitly the requests of three Gulf leaders: Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. The revelation, made via Truth Social, illustrates the ability of Arab monarchies to weigh in on US military decisions in a conflict that destabilizes the entire region.

The Daily Sabah, which covers the event through two dispatches, notes that Trump formally ordered Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Daniel Caine to "be ready to launch a large-scale assault against Iran at any moment" if no acceptable agreement was reached. The suspension is therefore not a withdrawal, but an operational standby: US forces remain in an offensive posture.

The fragile truce signed on April 8 is under pressure from several factors. Diplomatically, Washington has transmitted to Tehran a list of five points, including the demand that Iran retain only one active nuclear site and transfer its entire stock of highly enriched uranium to the US. The Iranian agency Fars confirmed that Washington refuses to unlock "even 25%" of frozen Iranian assets abroad, nor pay compensation for war damages. The Mehr agency estimated that Washington seeks to obtain through negotiation what it has not been able to conquer militarily.

Security-wise, the situation remains volatile. Saudi Arabia intercepted three drones entering its airspace from Iraq; in the UAE, a drone caused a fire at the Barakah nuclear power plant, with no casualties or change in radiation levels. UAE Presidential Adviser Anwar Gargash denounced "a dangerous terrorist targeting," implicitly targeting Iran and its proxy groups.

Pakistan plays a mediating role: Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi met with Iranian chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf in Tehran, who declared on social media that the war had "destabilized the entire Middle East." Israel, for its part, reports around 200 projectiles fired by Hezbollah over the weekend, and its strikes in Lebanon killed five people on Sunday, according to Beirut.

Turkish coverage emphasizes the pivotal role of Gulf allies, positioned as arbiters between Washington and Tehran, and the persistent instability of the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of global oil exports normally pass.