GERMANY PERSPECTIVE

Berlin, July 7, 2026. Paris's appeals court confirmed on Tuesday the guilt of Marine Le Pen in the embezzled European Parliament funds case, while substantially easing the first-instance penalty. This is what German media seized on first: Le Pen's ineligibility sentence was reduced from five years to 45 months, with 30 suspended. The 15 months already served since the March 2025 ruling mean she could theoretically run in the April 2027 presidential election, the ZEIT notes. Yet the court upholds three years imprisonment, two suspended, the final year to be served under electronic monitoring, plus a 100,000-euro fine, the Handelsblatt recalls. Le Pen had ruled out campaigning under electronic surveillance: "I cannot depend on a judge to attend a rally in Romorantin or a market in Henin-Beaumont," she declared before the verdict, the business daily quotes. The RN as a party faces a 2-million-euro fine for complicity and misappropriation of public funds, the ZEIT details. The FAZ notes that wearing an ankle bracelet requires judicial permission to leave the territory—a heavy logistical obstacle for a national campaign. Without Le Pen's candidacy, attention turns to Jordan Bardella, 30, party leader and Le Pen's "political heir" per Deutsche Welle, prepared to run contingently. Polls show the RN at 32-38 percent in the first round, far ahead of Édouard Philippe, deemed the only figure capable of uniting right and left electorates against the party. Jacob Ross, France expert at the DGAP cited by Deutsche Welle, draws a direct parallel with Germany: the anti-far-right coalition that long functioned in France "has weakened in recent years," an observation Berlin watches intently as the AfD advances on its own soil. This comparative reading, more than procedural case details, structures German media coverage of the affair.