CHINA PERSPECTIVE

Beijing finds itself in a strategically uncomfortable position that analysts at the South China Morning Post describe with unusual candour: China's repeated calls for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen expose the real limits of its leverage over Iran. As Tehran's privileged commercial partner and beneficiary of discounted Iranian oil since 2019, China would appear to have every reason to pressure Tehran into reopening the strait — yet it cannot.

The economic reality for Beijing is stark: 70% of Chinese oil imports transit through Hormuz. The Politburo has urgently commissioned maritime security studies — a signal that the shock is genuine and that alternative supply routes (the Kazakh pipeline, Russian oil via Eastern Siberia) are insufficient to compensate. The Chinese economy absorbs an external shock at a moment when it is already strained by commercial tensions with Washington.

Beijing's official position frames itself as mediating: calls for a ceasefire, support for negotiations through the UN. In practice, however, China operates on multiple fronts — profiting from Iran's economic weakening to purchase oil at lower cost, while publicly condemning the American blockade. This balancing act has its limits: if Iran collapses economically under blockade pressure, Beijing loses both a supplier and a strategic partner. If Iran endures and deepens ties with China, Washington will intensify its pressure on Beijing.