SINGAPORE PERSPECTIVE

Singapore, May 27, 2026. As Donald Trump himself tempers expectations by stating he has instructed his negotiators to "not rush," Singapore registers with sustained attention every move in a crisis whose commercial and energy repercussions directly touch Southeast Asia.

The context is heavy. War broke out on February 28 following US-Israeli strikes on Iran, followed by Iranian missile and drone reprisals across the region. On March 2, Lebanese Hezbollah attacked Israel following the death of Iran's Supreme Leader in those strikes. Since April 8, a ceasefire has been in place, but it remains extremely fragile: Washington maintains a blockade of Iranian ports, and Tehran imposes controls on maritime traffic in the Gulf.

This blockade carries existential weight for economies heavily dependent on hydrocarbon imports. Before the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz ensured the transit of one-fifth of global petroleum and liquefied natural gas shipments—a figure illustrating the current disruption's scope and the urgency felt by energy-importing nations in the region.

On May 24, Trump appeared close to an announcement, indicating that a peace memorandum had been "largely negotiated" between the two parties. Yet later that same day, he walked back the signal on Truth Social: "Negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner, and I have instructed my representatives not to rush." He added: "Both parties must take the necessary time to do things right."

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, visiting India, told journalists on May 24 that there existed "perhaps the possibility that in the coming hours the world receives good news"—a formulation that proved premature. The next day, US forces struck missile sites in southern Iran and vessels attempting to lay mines in the Strait, even as Rubio assured on May 26 that an agreement remained "within reach."

The Tasnim agency, linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, indicated that major clauses of the text remain unresolved: release of frozen funds, Tehran's nuclear ambitions, Hezbollah's position in Lebanon, and sanctions relief. These fundamental divergences explain Trump's displayed caution.

For Singapore, this sequence illustrates the volatility of a process where statements of optimism and military strikes succeed one another within hours. The city-state, a regional commerce hub, lacks the means to influence these negotiations, but monitors every signal that might indicate when the Strait of Hormuz will regain its function as a free passage.