PAKISTAN PERSPECTIVE

Islamabad, July 15, 2026. Pakistan is watching with concern the rapid deterioration of an agreement it itself negotiated. The Islamabad memorandum of understanding, a 14-point text signed in June between Washington and Tehran, had declared the end of the war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic. According to reports, its article 5 provided for a 60-day toll-free passage. A month later, this framework is unraveling: President Trump has called the initial ceasefire "over," accusing Iranian officials of not honoring their commitments, while Tehran, through the voice of Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei, accuses Washington of pushing the agreement "toward crisis." In the face of this escalation, "the Pakistani mediator has urged all parties to respect their obligations under the agreement," a newspaper reports.

On the ground, the United States has conducted a third consecutive night of strikes against Iran, with Trump reinstating a blockade of Iranian shipments and proposing a 20% transit fee before backing down. "Based on very productive conversations with Middle Eastern leaders, I have decided to replace the 20% reimbursement fee with trade and investment agreements that various Gulf states will make with the United States," he announced on Truth Social, according to Dawn. Two Emirati oil tankers, the Mombasa and the Al Bahiyah, were hit by Iranian cruise missiles in Omani territorial waters, killing one Indian crew member and injuring eight others.

A direct consequence for a region dependent on these energy routes is that the barrel has risen to its highest level in a month, with Brent reaching $84.80, Geo News reports. Tehran is now threatening to open a second front via its Houthi allies at the Bab-el-Mandeb, which could, according to a Yemeni official, propel prices to $200. Beijing, for its part, is calling for "free and secure" passage through the strait.