UNITED STATES PERSPECTIVE
TRUMP DROPS STRAIT OF HORMUZ TOLL AS BLOCKADE AND STRIKES ON IRAN RESUME
DOMINANT ANGLE
The United States government leans in favor of investment agreements rather than a toll on the Strait of Hormuz, following urgent appeals from Gulf monarchies.
Dominant angle identified — does not reflect unanimity of this country’s media
ANALYSIS
The United States government, on July 15, 2026, announced and then withdrew one of the most contentious measures of the crisis with Iran within a span of two days. On Monday, the US had stated its intention to become the "guardian of the Strait of Hormuz," promising to reinstate a naval blockade against Iranian ships starting Tuesday at 4 pm ET and impose a 20% "reimbursement fee" on all cargo transiting through the waterway. However, on Tuesday, the US reversed its decision: "Based on very productive conversations with Middle Eastern leaders, I have decided to replace the 20% reimbursement fee with trade and investment agreements," it was stated on Truth Social. It was clarified that calls had been received from "kings and emirs" in the Gulf, requesting the waiver of tolls.
The tax proposal had nonetheless caused a shockwave among regional allies and within the UN's International Maritime Organization, which deemed it illegal, as the June ceasefire explicitly prohibited any taxation of the strait. The maritime transport sector, via shipowner Hapag-Lloyd and the BIMCO association, had denounced a measure that risked further reducing an already plummeting traffic volume.
The reversal on tolls does not erase the military escalation. CENTCOM confirmed a third consecutive night of strikes against Iranian defense, missile, and maritime capability sites, aiming to "degrade Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping." The blockade, which had been suspended since a 14-point memorandum was signed in June, resumed on Tuesday at 4 pm ET. In retaliation, the Revolutionary Guards claimed to have struck two "non-compliant" tankers and fired missiles toward Bahrain, the headquarters of the US 5th Fleet, while Jordan claimed to have intercepted four projectiles. Two Emirati tankers were also targeted, resulting in one fatality. The Brent barrel price surged by over 3%, nearing $80.
KEY POINTS
- The United States government announced on Monday the reinstatement of a naval blockade against Iran starting Tuesday at 4 PM ET, with a 20% tax on freight, before withdrawing the tax the next day in favor of investment agreements from the Gulf
- The UN's International Maritime Organization had deemed the tax illegal, in violation of the 14-point ceasefire memorandum signed in June
- US Central Command carried out a third consecutive night of strikes against Iran, while Tehran claimed strikes on two tankers and missile launches targeting Bahrain and Jordan
COGNITIVE BIASES IDENTIFIED
The United States government's decision-making process has been under intense scrutiny, with a strong focus on President Trump's statements and policy reversals, and less analysis of Iranian motivations
The US media tends to favor official and military sources, such as CENTCOM and the White House, over local civilian or humanitarian voices
There is limited coverage of the long-term regional economic consequences, with the emphasis remaining on the immediate diplomatic sequence
SOURCES (3)
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