Issue 413 October – 9 October
The world, from another angle.
Yemen, a war changes scale.
Riyadh and the Yemeni government launch a reconquest, Ankara and Islamabad pledge troops, Washington stays in support; in Brazil, Bolsonarism is back in front; in Kyiv, the war targets the bridges.
Published 10 October 2026
In this issue
Yemen: a reconquest announced, three armies involved
After the Houthis claimed a strike on an Aramco site near Riyadh, Yemen's government launched an offensive to retake all the territory they control. The next day, Turkey and Pakistan pledged a "rapid" deployment of forces to Saudi Arabia. Washington is providing intelligence, not strikes.631311179
Brazil: Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula, against the polls
Jair Bolsonaro's son won 47% of the vote in the first round, against 45% for the incumbent, whom the final polls had shown in the lead. The runoff will take place on 25 October, against a backdrop of strained relations with the Trump administration.12812
The cover story
Yemen: Riyadh goes on the counteroffensive, Ankara and Islamabad commit
Last week, we described a war against Iran suspended on the US electoral calendar, and we considered one scenario: a widening of the Yemeni front. It has half materialised: the offensive has been launched, but Washington is not joining it with strikes. On Saturday 3 October, the Houthis claimed a missile and drone strike on an Aramco site south of Riyadh, where an AFP journalist saw flames; on Sunday 4, the head of Yemen's UN-recognised government, Rashad al-Alimi, announced an offensive to retake all Houthi-held territory.631311
On Monday 5, Turkey and Pakistan, bound to Riyadh by a defence pact signed in August, decided to deploy forces rapidly to the kingdom. The United States, for its part, is limiting itself to intelligence. This dossier sets out what was decided, what each side claims on the ground and what remains to be verified.1716913
The context
How the week unfolded
The Houthis claim a strike on an Aramco site near Riyadh and accuse the Saudi air force of 26 strikes on Sanaa.63
Rashad al-Alimi launches the offensive against the Houthis, who cut the Taiz-Aden road; the Pentagon confirms its bombers have left Fairford.131114
In Brazil, Flávio Bolsonaro finishes ahead of Lula in the first round; runoff on 25 October.128
Turkey and Pakistan decide on a rapid deployment of forces to Saudi Arabia under the Mecca pact.1817
Russian strikes on Kyiv and a dozen regions: at least 28 dead, including five children in Pryluky.2019
For subscribers
The facts are where the story begins.
Continue with the full analysis: the connections between the facts, their consequences and what remains uncertain.
Our sources, an open book.20 references in this reading
- Lula's lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil vote, CNT/MDA poll shows
ARY News — 4 October 2026
- Brasil, ante una elección polarizada y de fuerte impacto regional: Lula y Bolsonaro parten como favoritos
El Observador — 4 October 2026
- Houthis claim strike on oil facilty near Riyadh, accuse Saudi forces of pounding Yemen's capital
France 24 — 4 October 2026
- Moscou appelle les diplomates et étrangers à quitter Kiev
20 Minutes — 4 October 2026
- Zelenszkij az orosz megtorló csapásokról: Megkettőzzük az orosz olajfinomítók elleni támadásokat
HVG — 4 October 2026
- Arabie saoudite : les Houthis revendiquent une frappe de missiles et de drones sur un site d'Aramco à Riyad
The Refract — 4 October 2026
- Ukraine : la Russie frappe un deuxième grand pont de Kiev, Zelensky promet de viser les raffineries russes
The Refract — 4 October 2026
- Bolsonaro defies expectations in Brazil presidential vote to face Lula in run-off
ABC News Australia — 5 October 2026
- Yemen's government declares major operation against Houthis
ABC News Australia — 5 October 2026
- Why is fighting intensifying in Yemen’s Taiz governorate?
Al Jazeera — 5 October 2026
- Al-Alimi Announces Start of Full-Scale Military Campaign Against Houthis
Asharq Al-Awsat — 5 October 2026
- Brésil : Flávio Bolsonaro devance Lula au premier tour, un second tour le 25 octobre
The Refract — 5 October 2026
- Yémen : le gouvernement lance une offensive pour reprendre aux Houthis l'ensemble du territoire
The Refract — 5 October 2026
- US withdraws all bomber aircraft from UK airbase
ARY News — 6 October 2026
- Turquia e Paquistão enviam forças para ajudar Arábia Saudita contra os houthis
Folha Mundo — 6 October 2026
- Turkey, Pakistan agree to deploy forces in Saudi
Gulf Times — 6 October 2026
- Turkiye, Pakistan agree Saudi Arabia military deployment under Mecca pact
Al Jazeera — 6 October 2026
- Arabie saoudite : la Turquie et le Pakistan vont déployer des troupes dans le royaume face aux Houthis
The Refract — 6 October 2026
- At least 28 killed in Ukraine, Zelensky condemns one of Russia's most 'vile strikes'
Daily Maverick — 8 October 2026
- Ukraine : au moins 28 morts dans des frappes russes, dont cinq enfants dans un immeuble de Prylouky
The Refract — 8 October 2026