TAIWAN PERSPECTIVE

Taipei, May 21, 2026. For Taiwan, Donald Trump's announcement of a phone call with President William Lai Ching-te constitutes an unprecedented diplomatic moment since 1979 — the first direct conversation between the two leaders since the formal rupture of relations. But in Taipei, this event fits into a context of strong pressure, where every signal from Washington is deciphered with acuity.

During his speech marking the second anniversary of his inauguration, Lai clearly set the terms of the message he intends to convey to Trump: China is the main destabilizing factor in the strait, not Taiwan. "The Republic of China, Taiwan, is a sovereign and independent state. No country has the right to annex Taiwan," he asserted. The president also reaffirmed his attachment to the status quo, insisting that his government is "a guardian of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait."

The immediate issue is the fate of a $14 billion arms contract, whose conclusion remains pending Trump's decision. The latter, after his summit with Xi Jinping, had described arms sales as "a good tool for negotiation," leaving a uncertainty that Taipei considers worrying. Lai has clearly signaled: "We hope this arms program can continue." He had himself supported the financing of purchases from the United States, after the parliament did not adopt the executive's special defense budget in full.

Taiwanese experts interpret Trump's post-summit declarations as a reassuring red line. Tung Li-wen, executive director of the Foundation on Asia-Pacific Peace Studies, believes that Trump, by confirming that he has taken no commitment with Xi regarding a potential invasion of Taiwan and promising to speak with the Taiwanese leader, has drawn "clear red lines" confirming Washington's attachment to the "six assurances" formulated by Reagan in 1982. For Tung, Trump seeks above all to maintain the status quo — an objective shared by Lai.

The internal political scene remains however divided. The Kuomintang (KMT) accuses Lai of fueling tensions by promoting an independentist rhetoric that Trump himself would have "exposed." The opposition party claims that the president's approach puts the 23 million Taiwanese in danger by ignoring international realities. The Taiwan People's Party (TPP) criticizes Lai's inability to resolve the internal political deadlock and the energy crisis.