INDIA PERSPECTIVE

New Delhi explicitly compares the energy shock to the Covid pandemic—and rolls out its crisis plan accordingly. The Gulf Times (citing sources in New Delhi) reveals that the Indian government is considering a credit guarantee program of 2,000 to 2,500 billion rupees ($26.8 billion) for SMEs and affected sectors. The model is explicitly the May 2020 program, with 100 percent guaranteed loans and no collateral. India is the world's third-largest oil consumer and imports 90 percent of its gas from the Middle East. Goldman Sachs has lowered its growth forecast to 5.9 percent, Oxford Economics to 6.2 percent—against the government's 6.8-7.2 percent. The Finance Ministry has modeled a scenario at $120 per barrel for the year. NDTV separately reports that the crisis is already hitting the real economy: soybean meal exports from Madhya Pradesh have collapsed due to disrupted shipping routes. Alexandra Hermann of Oxford Economics warns that 'the vulnerability is unusually broad'—the rupee, purchasing power, Gulf remittances, budget space, and private investment are all under pressure simultaneously. For a country targeting 7-8 percent annual growth to realize Modi's economic agenda, each week of Hormuz closure is a measurable setback.