DOMINANT ANGLE
Ankara is gauging the US withdrawal from Iraq in terms of the strategic vacuum it leaves for Tehran, and the question posed by the Turkish press: end of mission or mere redeployment?
Dominant angle identified — does not reflect unanimity of this country’s media
KEY POINTS
- 01
The last American forces are to have left their bases in Iraq by Wednesday, September 30, at the latest, under an agreement reached in 2024 under Joe Biden and implemented by the Trump administration (Daily Sabah).
- 02
Commander Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri, of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, describes the withdrawal as a "historic victory" (Daily Sabah, citing Reuters).
- 03
Iraqi authorities describe September 30 as a "firm and final date", while debate continues on the American presence in Iraqi Kurdistan and around diplomatic sites (BBC Türkçe).
ANALYSIS
Ankara, September 30, 2026. Turkish forces are not involved, but US forces must leave their last bases in Iraq by this Wednesday, September 30, at the latest. Daily Sabah, a pro-government daily, headlines a withdrawal that leaves "a void for Iran" after two decades of presence. The newspaper recalls that the agreement dates back to 2024, under Joe Biden, and is being carried out by the Trump administration "even as it wages war against Iran".
The newspaper highlights the Iranian reading: the departure is celebrated as a victory by Tehran and its allies, who have deep influence in a country where 4,500 Americans have died. Jasim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi security analyst, estimates that Iran derives a strategic benefit from this, as the coalition has been a counterweight for years. Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri, commander of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, speaks of a "historic victory" and a "crushing defeat of the American project", and announces that September 30 will be celebrated as "a black page turned". According to the newspaper, this withdrawal could also allow other enemies of the United States, including Daesh, to return.
BBC Türkçe, based on an analysis by BBC Monitoring, raises another question: does this departure mark the end of a mission or a strategic redeployment? The text recalls that the mission launched after the Islamic State took control of large areas of Iraq in 2014 is ending, and that US troops had already withdrawn in 2011, eight years after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. The two governments affirm that the schedule is being respected. Washington reiterates its commitment to the September 30 deadline, and Iraqi officials describe it as a "firm and final date", saying that October 1 will be "a new day in the country's trajectory".
The BBC notes, however, that the debate continues on the future of the US military presence in Iraq and in the Kurdistan region, as well as on the role that US forces could play in protecting diplomatic sites. The Turkish perspective remains that of a regional rebalancing, where Iran appears as the main beneficiary, and where the security of Baghdad against Daesh is a secondary but real concern.
