SPAIN PERSPECTIVE

Madrid, July 3, 2026. A statement of less than 150 words from the US was enough to shake the North American commercial architecture. On July 1, upon the expiration of the review period, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced that the United States would not renew the USMCA "in its current form". The agreement - which Trump himself negotiated during his first term to replace NAFTA - remains formally in effect, but its future is now subject to annual revisions. This strategy generates, according to Spanish press, lasting uncertainty for companies operating on a continental scale. Spain's El País and ElDiario.es highlight the scope of the affected sectors: automotive, agriculture, retail, and energy. These industries rely on continental supply chains based on regulatory stability that the USMCA was supposed to guarantee. By opting for continuous bilateral negotiations rather than the trilateral framework, the US breaks with the multilateral logic that underpinned this agreement, exposing these sectors to years of renegotiations on the rules governing trade. The solution proposed by the White House to companies seeking to avoid this uncertainty is explicit: invest in the United States. El País describes this approach as an "exercise in economic nationalism", a reading that summarizes the Spanish framing of a decision perceived as a vector of pressure on partners. Greer specified that the US "will continue to collaborate with Mexico and Canada to address the agreement's shortcomings and reduce trade deficits". The immediate calendar includes a third round of US-Mexico bilateral negotiations for the week of July 20. The fact that the US is treating each partner separately rather than in a common framework is seen in Madrid as a structural lever of pressure: negotiating bilaterally mechanically weakens Mexico's and Canada's capacity for resistance. Iberian press notes a symbolic coincidence: these same three countries are co-hosting the 2026 FIFA World Cup. ElDiario.es mentions this paradox of a relationship that is both festive and commercially tense. The agreement remains legally in effect for a decade if no country withdraws - but annual revisions open the door to years of uncertainty for markets and investors.