UNITED KINGDOM PERSPECTIVE

London, July 3, 2026. The UK is closely watching the developments in the USMCA, as the US has refused to renew the agreement in its current terms, which Donald Trump had presented as a major commercial achievement during his first term. The decision, announced after virtual consultations on July 1 — the deadline set by the treaty — marks a turning point in North American trade relations and is being closely monitored by British economic circles.

The Office of the US Trade Representative has confirmed the refusal to renew the agreement as is, citing persistent deficits with both neighboring countries. Jamieson Greer specified that the US would "continue to work with Mexico and Canada to address the shortcomings of the agreement". A senior official summarized the position: Trump "chose not to unconditionally approve" the renewal of the USMCA.

The agreement remains formally in effect during the negotiations, but the mechanism is changing radically. Now subject to annual review instead of the six-year cycle planned, the pact is entering a countdown logic: without the unanimous agreement of the three signatories, a ten-year clock starts, exposing the agreement to expiration as early as 2036. A renewal would have guaranteed its permanence until 2042.

The stakes are colossal: the USMCA underlies approximately $2,000 billion (£1,500 billion) in annual trade. Key sectors — automotive, agriculture — depend on the certainty of cross-border rules, the US Chamber of Commerce had warned. The US is targeting the rules of origin for automobiles, Canadian dairy quotas, and the need to prevent third countries, particularly China, from exploiting the regional framework.

From the Mexican side, Marcelo Ebrard, Minister of Economy, sought to reassure: "There is no disagreement between our three countries that is so important that we cannot resolve it." Trump had nonetheless threatened to abandon the USMCA the previous month, backtracking on his own praise for the text during his first term.

For London, the weakening of this North American commercial pillar illustrates the risks of unpredictable trade policies. Post-Brexit UK remains attentive to any signal of prolonged instability in the major trade blocs. A consequence of the US pressure is that it has triggered a patriotic rebound in Canada — 52% of Canadians now declare themselves "very proud" of their nationality.