UNITED STATES PERSPECTIVE

The United States government has officially decided not to renew the USMCA free trade agreement in its current form, missing the July 1 deadline for an automatic 16-year renewal. The decision, announced by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, does not terminate the agreement - goods will continue to circulate as before - but triggers a mechanism of annual revisions that could lead to substantial renegotiation.

A senior US administration official summarized the American position unequivocally: the United States "has chosen not to automatically renew the USMCA without addressing existing problems." The main concern of the US government is the American trade deficits with Canada and Mexico. However, these deficits were already at the heart of criticisms of NAFTA, which the USMCA was supposed to replace in 2020. The US government had then presented this new agreement as "the greatest, fairest, and most modern ever concluded." Six years later, the administration considers the outcome insufficient.

For economist Josh Lipsky, president of international economics at the Atlantic Council, "the immediate practical impact is very low," but the decision "creates uncertainty about the long-term viability of the USMCA." The agreement frames nearly $2 trillion in annual trade between the three partner countries, supporting industries ranging from automobiles to agriculture. Experts interviewed by Time emphasize that this chronic uncertainty risks discouraging investment and complicating tightly integrated supply chains at the continental level.

The American automotive industry sees the reopening of negotiations as an opportunity to rebalance the balance of power. Jim Farley, CEO of Ford, told CNBC that he wants a "level playing field": Ford assembled over 2 million vehicles in the United States last year, importing only 17% of its sales. In contrast, General Motors and Toyota imported 41% and 47% of their American volumes in 2025, respectively. "It is imperative that any new agreement facilitates, and does not complicate, competition with manufacturers that import from Japan, South Korea, and other markets," Farley said.

The United States, with its capital in Washington, is taking a stance that may impact its relationships with Canada and Mexico, which both advocated for a renewal of the agreement. The US government's decision not to renew the agreement appears primarily as a means of pressure - a way to renegotiate chapters deemed unfavorable to American interests rather than a clear trade rupture. The USMCA remains in effect, but its institutional framework is now subject to the unpredictable dynamics of annual revisions, starting from July 3, 2026, and potentially lasting for over a decade, until 2036, or even 000 hours of negotiations, affecting the $000 billion trade between the countries.