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FRANCE PERSPECTIVE
US WON'T RENEW USMCA: NORTH AMERICAN TRADE PACT ON BORROWED TIME
DOMINANT ANGLE
Paris sees the non-renewal of the USMCA as a turning point towards permanent bilateralism, which undermines the stability of North American industrial chains and the very idea of stable trade agreements.
Dominant angle identified — does not reflect unanimity of this country’s media
ANALYSIS
Paris, July 3, 2026. France is closely watching the developments in the North American trade landscape as the United States has officially announced that it will not renew the USMCA - the North American free trade agreement in effect since 2020 - in its current form. The US trade representative, Jamieson Greer, stated that the US has not accepted the renewal of the USMCA in its current form, marking a significant shift away from multilateral trade agreements and towards a period of uncertainty for businesses in the three countries. The agreement, which could have been extended for 16 years, will now be subject to annual revisions over the next decade. The Trump administration has opted for permanent renegotiation, sector by sector, rather than withdrawing from the agreement with a six-month notice. For businesses that have built integrated supply chains between the three countries over the past 30 years, this change in trade policy is far from insignificant, and they are hesitant to invest in a climate of quasi-daily uncertainty. The automotive industry is at the center of the tensions, with the US seeking to increase the percentage of US-made content in each vehicle to 50%, a radical requirement for manufacturers that have developed trinational supply chains over the past 30 years. Canada has imposed limits on dairy products, Mexico is protectionist when it comes to corn, and disagreements over steel and aluminum persist. Mexico, which exports 88% of its goods to the US - totaling $189 billion between January and April 2026 - is in the most vulnerable position. President Claudia Sheinbaum has chosen to take a calming approach, with the government and business unions calling for calm. There has been some progress, with 54 points of disagreement last year and 14 this year. New negotiations are scheduled for July 20 in Mexico, while Ottawa has not yet set a calendar. The USMCA was itself a creation of Trump's first term, intended to replace NAFTA. Its non-renewal by the same president illustrates a now-clear doctrine: no multilateral trade framework is set in stone. Disputes over steel, aluminum, lumber, dairy products, and corn are accumulating, and the annual revision mechanism promises a decade of tough negotiations between the three North American neighbors. France is analyzing the implications of this shift on the global trade landscape.
KEY POINTS
- The USMCA was not renewed before the July 1, 2026 deadline and will now enter a mechanism of annual revisions over 10 years.
- The US is requiring that 50% of the content of each vehicle produced in the region be made in the US, a radical change for the trinational automotive industry.
- Mexico exports 88% of its goods to the US (totaling $189 billion between January and April 2026), making it particularly vulnerable to the instability of the agreement.
COGNITIVE BIASES IDENTIFIED
External geopolitical framing: French coverage analyzes the agreement as a North American issue without measuring its impact on European exporters to the region.
Preference for the Mexican perspective: the media gives more attention to Mexico's position than to Ottawa's, despite both being equally exposed partners.
Limited coverage of labor stakeholders: the analysis prioritizes governments and business unions, without giving a voice to the workers in the affected industrial sectors.
SOURCES (3)
MEDIUMSTATE MEDIA
MEDIUM
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