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After a month of calm during which Washington had shifted its effort to an economic war, US forces struck missile launchers on an island in the Strait of Hormuz on 31 August 2026. Tehran retaliated against two US bases in Jordan and targets in the United Arab Emirates, which called the attack a dangerous escalation. A tanker was hit by three projectiles in the strait's southern lane and a Saudi supertanker was intercepted. Brent rose to around 91 dollars.
The 25th summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation was held in Bishkek on 31 August and 1 September 2026, bringing together Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Narendra Modi and Masoud Pezeshkian. Xi and the Kyrgyz president signed a treaty of permanent good-neighbourliness; Putin proposed China-Russia cooperation on artificial intelligence; Modi publicly called for an end to the war in Ukraine. Pakistan takes over the chairmanship for 2026-2027.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a campaign to collapse Iran's economy, telling other capitals they are either with Washington or against it. Tehran calls the economic war a breach of international law and threatens a military response. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is falling.
"The only one that has control of the Strait of Hormuz is the United States Navy," Donald Trump said from the Oval Office, claiming to have swept it entirely for mines. The next day a CENTCOM helicopter fired two Hellfire missiles at a Panama-flagged cargo ship running the blockade. Tehran is holding to its conditions; Pakistan and Qatar simultaneously report a diplomatic breakthrough. Oil is climbing.
On Sunday, Houthi forces claimed a drone strike on the Aramco refinery at Jazan on the Red Sea; Riyadh said the fire was out with no casualties. The same day, shelling of the port of Mokha killed at least seven people. Two days earlier the UN Security Council had condemned Houthi fire on the kingdom since 13 July. A conflict frozen since the 2022 truce is reigniting, two days after the Riyadh-Ankara-Islamabad defence pact.
On Saturday the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council published six preconditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz: an end to the war, the lifting of the naval blockade and of sanctions, the withdrawal of US forces, compensation for war damage and the release of frozen assets. On Sunday the Revolutionary Guards hardened the line while Oman negotiated a temporary shipping corridor and Washington spoke of 'some progress'. A fifth of the world's oil is waiting.
On 5 August 2026 Israel resumed strikes on southern Lebanon and ordered the evacuation of Mansouri, citing a ceasefire violation; the next day the IDF announced two reservists killed, its first losses since 28 June. At the same moment the seventh round of US-brokered talks was under way in Rome. Twelve countries order these facts differently — and the Arab world is missing from the account.
Donald Trump says he called off a strike on Iran — "the biggest attack since World War II" — because the parameters of a deal on Hormuz and the nuclear file had been reached. Tehran denies it: "a sheer lie." Crude fell more than 5 percent. One question divides thirteen capitals: whom do you believe when two states narrate the same day differently?
Donald Trump says he and Israel have agreed to suspend a large-scale strike on Iran, at the request of Tehran and other Middle Eastern countries, conditional on a deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Eleven countries read the pause differently: a retreat, a trap, or a diplomatic opening.
After a brief pause, Iran launched a ballistic-missile attack on a U.S. base in Jordan, quickly followed by joint U.S.-Saudi strikes on pro-Iranian militias in Iraq (at least ten dead). Riyadh's entry into the conflict and the use of Israeli bases mark a regional escalation.
After thirteen nights of U.S. bombing, Donald Trump orders a pause that Iran says it reciprocates by halting its reprisals. Tehran denies any direct negotiation despite Qatari and Pakistani mediation, while oil prices retreat and the Strait of Hormuz stays tense.
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