ISRAEL PERSPECTIVE

Tel Aviv, May 28, 2026. As the flames of Bandar Abbas were not yet extinguished, a discreet but palpable sense of satisfaction spread through Israel's security circles. For weeks, top officials in Jerusalem had hammered home the point that US-Iranian negotiations would reach an impasse and that military force would become inevitable. "It's not a question of if, but when," they confided to the Jerusalem Post. The attack on the Iranian drone control station in Bandar Abbas, launched on the night of May 27-28, according to Washington, in response to Iranian drones targeting a commercial vessel attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz, has given them reason to be right today.

This reading sharply diverges from that of Gulf states, which had bet on a negotiated agreement. Their leaders believed that Trump had no interest in sparking a Brent price surge to $250 a barrel before the November mid-term elections. But Jerusalem never shared this optimism: even a limited agreement, they thought, would leave the structural threat posed by Tehran intact. Israel had, in fact, raised its military alert level in anticipation of a US strike.

The Israeli perspective on the escalation is precise and severe. The Jerusalem Post cites Dr. Lynette Nusbacher, a military historian and former British intelligence officer, who describes Iranian fire on four ships in the Strait of Hormuz as "act of war". She notes that "it is almost certain that ceasefires will be violated" and highlights the difference between a pause in hostilities and genuine peace. Iran's ability to lay mines and strike ships from its territory remains intact – a reality that Israel, equipped with its Iron Dome and Arrow systems, follows with particular attention.

On the diplomatic front, a 60-day Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was being finalized between US and Iranian negotiators, according to Axios, including an Iranian commitment not to develop nuclear arms, the lifting of tolls on the Strait, and the removal of mines within 30 days. But Trump had asked for a few extra days to reflect before signing. For Jerusalem, this delay raises a fundamental question: does the agreement cover Iran's ballistic missiles and its support for regional proxies? The answer, according to the Jerusalem Post, is clearly no. "Nothing indicates that Iran's ballistic missile program or its support for armed groups is included in the terms being discussed."

Trump had also declared his desire for a "perfect" agreement and threatened to "finish the job" if not – a formulation that Israel is taking to heart. The US posture, firm on Ormuz ("no one will control it") and enriched uranium, aligns with Israel's core demands. But Tel Aviv measures the fragility of an equilibrium that relies on the IRGC's temporary restraint rather than its disarmament.