INDIA PERSPECTIVE

New Delhi, May 28, 2026. For India, the new military escalation between Washington and Tehran on May 27-28 is not a distant conflict: it's a shockwave that directly hits its economy, diplomacy, and millions of its expatriates in the Gulf monarchies.

The markets have said it in brutal numbers. From the first hours of the Asian session on May 28, Brent jumped by over 3.5% to reach $97.8 a barrel — its highest level in several weeks. WTI showed simultaneously +3.73% at $91.99. This rebound erased the relaxation of the previous week, when the two capitals seemed to be moving towards an agreement: prices had then given up more than 7% in a single session on the hope of a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The resurgence of fighting around Bandar Abbas has annihilated this optimism.

The Economic Times and the Hindu Business Line dissect the sequence: US forces shot down four Iranian attack drones near the Strait of Hormuz, then struck a ground control station at Bandar Abbas that was preparing to launch a fifth device. In retaliation, the IRGC targeted a US airbase in Kuwait at 4:50 am, with an explicit warning: any new 'aggression' would trigger an 'even more decisive' response. Riyadh and Kuwait City, which host significant Indian communities, are now in the crosshairs of a conflict that is still not officially over.

The Bandar Abbas port is at the heart of this tension — and it's a strategic node for New Delhi. The city is the gateway to the Iranian corridor that India uses to reach Afghanistan and Central Asia via Chabahar, a port on which New Delhi has invested hundreds of millions of dollars. Any durable destabilization of the southern Iranian region directly compromises this alternative logistical axis to Pakistani routes.

Indian press notes the fragility of the diplomatic framework. Deccan Chronicle recalls that the April ceasefire remains formally in place — both Washington and Tehran have reaffirmed it — but that the second flare-up of the week reveals the erosion of the mechanism. Trump, who had declared on Sunday that the agreement was 'largely negotiated,' launched a new strike the next day, asserting that Iran 'negotiates on its last breath.' For New Delhi, this unpredictability is precisely the problem: India needs stable trade routes and a predictable oil price, two variables that US behavior makes uncontrollable.

The Free Press Journal summarizes the equation: Brent had lost 7% the previous week on the hope of peace; it recovers all that ground in a few hours. This extreme volatility directly burdens India's oil bill, at a time when New Delhi is trying to contain domestic inflation. India imports around 85% of its crude oil needs, and Iran was among its priority suppliers before sanctions. The partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began in February has already forced Indian refineries to reconfigure their supplies to more expensive sources.