SAUDI ARABIA PERSPECTIVE

Riyadh, May 28, 2026. Saudi Arabia closely monitors the escalation of May 27-28 between Washington and Tehran with particularly sharp attention: each kilometer of the Strait of Hormuz is, for the Kingdom, an economic artery as much as a geopolitical fault line.

The facts are brutal. Iranian forces opened fire on four ships attempting to cross the strait, triggering a US strike on a ground control station in the port of Bandar Abbas, south of Iran. The IRGC retaliated at 4:50 a.m. (0120 GMT) by targeting the US base that launched the attack — without specifying its location, although Kuwait immediately activated its air defenses in response to what it called an "enemy attack." This is the most severe exchange since the April ceasefire.

For Riyadh, the chronology matters: these clashes occur at the precise moment when a framework agreement seemed within reach. According to Iranian state television, Tehran was ready to reopen the strait to its pre-war level within a month in exchange for the withdrawal of US forces from the region. Washington rejected this report, calling it a "complete fabrication." Trump posted on Truth Social: the US blockade of Iranian ships "will remain in full force until the conclusion, certification, and signature of an agreement."

The Kingdom remembers that Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz since February 28, 2026 — the date of the war triggered by US-Israeli airstrikes. A fifth of global oil and LNG transited through this point before the conflict. For an exporter the size of Saudi Arabia, each additional week of closure represents pressure on substitute routes and market uncertainty. Brent prices rebounded after the nighttime strikes, erasing the decline recorded on Wednesday on the basis of hopes for an agreement.

Asharq Al-Awsat documents the points of contention that remained before the escalation: the Iranian nuclear question — absent from the draft memorandum according to the Iranian version — as well as the freeze of tens of billions of dollars in Tehran's oil revenue in foreign banks. Secretary of State Rubio had estimated on Tuesday that it would take "a few more days" before a possible agreement. The night of May 27 transformed this deadline into open uncertainty.

The Saudi posture is read in the public diplomatic silence of the Kingdom: facing its regional rival Iran, Riyadh cannot officially rejoice in Tehran's weakening, but cannot tolerate prolonged instability at the gates of the Gulf. The question remains: does the escalation precipitate an agreement, or does it bury it?