ITALY PERSPECTIVE

Rome, May 28, 2026. In the early hours of May 28, US forces shot down four Iranian drones over the Strait of Hormuz and struck a land control station in Bandar Abbas, a strategic port in southern Iran. The Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) retaliated at 4:50 am local time by targeting a US base in the region, which Kuwait claimed to have repelled with its air defenses. For Italy, whose energy supplies transit massively through this 55-kilometer waterway, each hour of blockage translates into immediate price hikes at the pump and on industrial bills.

Markets didn't wait: Brent crude surged 3.75% at the Asian opening, wiping out gains accumulated during days of diplomatic hope. Four commercial ships attempting to cross Hormuz without prior coordination with Iranian authorities came under warning fire from the Pasdaran navy, forced to turn back according to Iranian state TV confirmed by ANSA.

What Rome is worried about is the fragility revealed in the negotiation process. According to US and Middle Eastern sources cited by Axios and picked up by ANSA, a memorandum of understanding had been concluded as early as Tuesday – providing for a 60-day truce, negotiations on Iranian nuclear issues, and the elimination of highly enriched uranium under US supervision. The Iranian leadership had accepted to sign. But Donald Trump demands 'a few more days' to make a 'final decision,' while an Iranian MP openly acknowledged that Tehran fears 'the unpredictability' of the US president, 'incapable of respecting his commitments.'

Trump simultaneously rejected the version of the agreement broadcast by Iranian state TV – which stipulated a partial US troop withdrawal, joint Iran-Oman management of Hormuz, and transit tariffs – labeling it 'pure invention.' He hammered home his red line: 'No one will control the Strait of Hormuz, it's international waters.' The US Treasury has imposed sanctions on the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, the Iranian organization created to manage transit, with Secretary Scott Bessent citing 'maximum pressure.'

On the mediation front, Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar was due to meet US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington to try to speed up the conclusion. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman are also involved in the negotiations – partners that Trump has publicly put under pressure to sign the Abraham Accords, linking the Iranian dossier to Arab-Israeli normalization.

For Europe and Italy in particular, this overlap of dossiers complicates any coordinated mediation initiative within the G7. Rome is following the dynamics closely: a prolonged closure of Hormuz would directly hit its industrial competitiveness, already under strain.