PHILIPPINES PERSPECTIVE

Manila, May 28, 2026. Just as a window of negotiation seemed to open for the Hormuz Strait to reopen, the Philippines learned with alarm of the US and Iranian retaliatory strikes on May 27-28. For a country whose Energy Secretary, Sharon Garin, had described the regional supply chain as a 'house of cards,' each new strike resonates like a piece of the fragile edifice crumbling.

Philippine media have documented the transmission mechanism with precision: major Asian refineries in Singapore, South Korea, and China — which supply most of the fuel imported by the archipelago — rely on Middle Eastern crude oil transported via Hormuz. When this corridor closed in early 2026, the crude oil shortage drove up regional refining costs, leading to a surge in maritime risk premiums and insurance. Result: diesel prices hit 130-140 pesos per liter, and gasoline prices exceeded 100 pesos per liter, historic levels.

Facing this situation, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed Executive Order No. 110 declaring a national energy emergency, suspending excise taxes on LPG and kerosene (RA 12316). The Civil Aviation Authority raised fuel surcharges on domestic flights.

It was in this context that an Iran State TV report on a possible 14-clause framework — proposing joint Oman-Iran management of the strait within 30 days — sparked a brief glimmer of hope in Manila. Current PH headlined 'A Glimmer of Financial Hope for the Philippines.' But Trump dismissed this report during a cabinet meeting, asserting that 'no country will control this strait.'

The escalation of the following night confirmed the fears: the US military said it had downed four Iranian drones and struck a land control station in Bandar Abbas, 'purely defensive measures' according to Washington; the IRGC retaliated by targeting the US base from which the attack originated. The Brent crude price, which had dropped 5% on Wednesday, rebounded by over 3.75% upon announcement of the clashes.

For the archipelago, the human dimension adds to the economic dimension: hundreds of thousands of Filipino migrant workers (OFWs) are employed in Gulf countries — Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar — hosting US bases and already hit by Iranian drone attacks. Kuwait, hosting a major US base, confirmed responding to missile and drone attacks. Each escalation revives the specter of an emergency evacuation of OFWs, on the model of past Gulf crises. Manila has no direct leverage in this standoff and waits, powerless, for oil to flow through Hormuz again.